Document # 8494 Climate Change and Resource Security in Canada Background Research Final Deliverable Prepared By: Ryan Foster and Jacqueline Medalye Prepared For: Annika Tamlyn, NRTEE Date: July 13, 2008 Table of Contents Executive Summary of Research ........................................................................................ 3 Chapter 1 ............................................................................................................................. 6 The Security of Canadian Ecosystems ................................................................................ 6 Overview of Key Issues and Institutions ..................................................................... 7 Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture ................................................................... 11 Agriculture: Existing Policies and Policy Gaps ........................................................ 17 Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries ....................................................................... 23 Fisheries: Existing Policies and Policy Gaps ............................................................ 27 Climate Change Impacts on Forestry ........................................................................ 29 Forestry: Existing Policies and Policy Gaps .............................................................. 35 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources .......................................................... 39 Water: Existing Policies and Policy Gaps ................................................................. 44 Chapter 2 ........................................................................................................................... 48 The Security of Canadian Energy Resources .................................................................... 48 Overview ................................................................................................................... 49 Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Security ....................................................... 50 Energy: Existing Policies and Policy Gaps ............................................................... 54 Chapter 3 ........................................................................................................................... 57 Security of Canadian Arctic Sovereignty and Resources ................................................. 57 Overview ................................................................................................................... 58 Impacts of Climate Change on Canada’s Arctic ....................................................... 59 Arctic: Existing Policies and Policy Gaps ................................................................. 66 Climate Change and Jurisdictional Sovereignty of the Canadian Arctic .............. 66 Climate Change and Canadian Territorial Responsibilities in the Arctic ............. 68 Climate Change, Northern Stewardship, and Canada’s Northern Peoples ........... 70 1 Appendices ........................................................................................................................ 72 Appendix 1 .................................................................................................................... 74 Summary of Drivers, Adaptation Options, Policies, and Gaps Climate Change .......... 74 Appendix 2 .................................................................................................................... 82 Mitigation Policies ........................................................................................................ 82 Appendix 3 .................................................................................................................... 83 Arctic Impacts, Adaptation, Policy and Gaps ............................................................... 83 Appendix 4 .................................................................................................................... 85 Discussion Questions .................................................................................................... 85 Appendix 5 .................................................................................................................... 90 A Snapshot of Energy Resources- Canada .................................................................... 90 Appendix 6 .................................................................................................................... 91 Costing Climate Change................................................................................................ 91 Appendix 7 .................................................................................................................... 95 Climate Change Impacts on Northern Peoples ............................................................. 95 2 Executive Summary of Research Agriculture        GHG emissions: Contributed 62,00 (kt CO2 GHGs) in 2007, 8.5 % of total Canadian emissions Key climate change impacts: Extreme weather and drought Security Challenges: Diminishing food stocks and threats to long-term productivity due to drought and extreme weather Key Institution: Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Agri-Foods Key Policies: Agricultural Policy Framework and Growing Forward, and Federal ‘Drought-Watch’ Policy Options: Technological developments (crops, irrigation), policies and subsidies (crop insurance, disaster relief, producer savings accounts) Key Policy Gaps: No National Drought Early Warning System and no policy instruments for private sector incentives for crop R&D or technological development Fisheries  GHG emissions: Domestic marine transportation contributed 5, 800 (kt CO2 GHGs) in 2007, less then 1% of total Canadian emissions  Key Climate Change Impacts: Change in sustainable harvests for all fish populations in the ecosystem leading to unpredictable harvests in the future Security Challenges: Diminishing fish stocks leading to loss of livelihoods in fishing communities and border tensions with US      Key Institution: Federal Ministry of Fisheries and Oceans Key Policies: Wild Pacific and Atlantic salmon Conservation Policies, FAO and UN Treaties Policy Options: Increasing monitoring, decreasing non-climatic stresses, sustainable resource management Key Policy Gaps: Fiscal, technological, and institutional barriers to adequate monitoring, and stakeholder collaboration process is limited (e.g. fishing communities). Policy to date has only focused on selected commercial species. Forestry       GHG emissions: Land use change and forestry contributed 31,000 (kt CO2) in 2007, Pulp and paper contributed 5,950 (kt CO2), energy use from agriculture and forestry contributed 1,980 (kt CO2); 5 % of total Canadian emissions Key Climate Change Impacts: Major changes in future forest growth and survival (unpredictable growth and yields, forest fires) Security Challenges: Economic damage and risk to forest resources and human security due to increased forest fire risk Key Institutions: Federal Canadian Forest Service and Provincial Forest Ministries Key Policies: National Forest Strategy Coalition and Canada’s Model Forest Program Policy Options: experimentation and adaptive management (fast growing trees, model forest), risk reduction strategies (firesmart), target research and learning (C-CIARN) 3  Key Policy Gaps: No National strategy for climate change and forests; No modification of forestry management systems to address issues of climate change (uncertainty and the ‘wait-and-see’ approach) Water        GHG emissions: Waste water handling 930 (kt CO2) in 2007, less then 1% of total Canadian emissions Key Climate Change Impacts: Decrease in water flow and less water availability Security Challenges: Competition over scarce water resources between consumers, sectors and nations Key Institutions: Environment Canada and Natural Resources Canada Key Policies: No national policy for water management; the International Boundary Treaty Act (1909) Policy Options: Water management and better resource management (conservation, reclamation), structural adaptations (no-regrets infrastructure), and institutional adaptations (stakeholder engagement, education) Key Policy Gaps: Lack of inter-governmental cooperation on key water issues due to constitutional division of powers (i.e. infrastructure, sharing between consumers and industry, effluent) Energy  GHG emissions: Total emissions 583,000 (kt CO2) in 2007, 81% of total Canadian       emissions Key Climate Change Impacts: Changing temperatures could impact energy demand and peak load, extreme weather could impact energy infrastructure and availability Security Challenges: Intensified competition over access to, and control over, energy resources; energy insecurity and questions of affordability Key Institutions: Natural Resource Canada, National Energy Board, Office of Energy Efficiency Key Policies: Turning the Corner GHG Mitigation Strategy, EcoACTION and EcoENERGY (policy instruments for conservation and emission reduction) Policy Options: Make infrastructure more secure against extreme weather, better management of resources (water use for extraction), diversification of energy sources and conservation Key Policy Gaps: No National Strategy for energy infrastructure adaptation; Need to address energy resilience in the face of energy fluctuations (black outs, brown outs, and infrastructure damage) Arctic    Key Climate Change Impacts: Rising temperatures leading to melting sea ice and permafrost, impacts of ecosystems, wildlife, and livelihoods Security Challenges: Challenges to territorial sovereignty in the Northwest Passage due to melting sea ice; threats to energy security and the simultaneous melting of permafrost and sea ice could lead to a race for resource exploration and extraction in the North; threats to the human security of Inuit and Northern peoples Key Institutions: The Ministry of Indian and Northern Affairs Canada, Department of National Defense, Natural Resources Canada, and the Governments of the Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut 4    Key Policies: Northern Affairs Program, The Northern Dimension of Canada’s Foreign Policy, Canadian Forces Northern Area, Territorial Energy Resource and Climate Strategies (Yukon and NWT), Inuvialuit Final Agreement Policy Options: Increased sovereignty patrols and northern presence, territorial control (UNCLOS mapping and geological/permafrost research, sustainable resource development strategies), devolution of jurisdiction to territorial governments, resource co-management strategies Key Policy Gaps: Need for international agreement or settlement on the Northwest Passage and disputes over polar boarder boundaries, need for more research on the impacts of exploration of ice-covered resources (fish, energy, diamonds, minerals), and climate change strategies need to be integrated into existing co-management strategies Please see appendices 1, 2, and 3 for a synthesis of the research in table form 5 Chapter 1 The Security of Canadian Ecosystems 6 Overview of Key Issues and Institutions Agriculture, terrestrial, and costal ecosystems all contain natural resources that are vital to the Canadian economy. The Second IPCC Assessment on Climate Change identified three sectors in Canada that are particularly vulnerable to climate change: agriculture and aquaculture, forestry, and fresh water resources. Projected changes in climate are expected to bring a range of challenges and benefits to Canada as our economic and social well-being is greatly influenced by the health and sustainability of these resources.1 In 2007, the agriculture, forestry, and fishing industries generated approximately 2% of Canada’s Gross Domestic Product2, and accounted for approximately 3% of total employment. However, these numbers may be slightly misleading, both because the resources supplied by these industries have a multiplied effect on productivity in Canada's manufacturing, heavy industries, and service industries, as well as the obviously vital importance of affordable food and clean drinking water for all Canadian citizens. Given this, this section considers the implications of climate change on a wide range of socio-economic variables across these sectors. The Canada Country Study3 concluded that the potential impacts4 of climate change on our forests, fisheries, agriculture, and water could be both varied and extreme. These impacts include:     longer growing seasons and extension of agriculture further north, but also risks to agriculture such as moisture deficits, pests, disease, and fires; impacts on fish populations, which could increase in some areas, mostly in the Arctic and on northern areas of the Pacific coast, and decrease in others, particularly the lakes and rivers of the Canadian Shield; risks to waterfowl populations due to lower water levels in lakes, rivers, and wetlands; and projected changes in the occurrence and severity of extreme events, which would have serious implications for the security and integrity of Canada’s natural resources, social systems, and infrastructure with subsequent implications for the insurance industry and supporting public sectors. The role of governments in adaptation to climate change often involves finding a balance between protecting the safety of the public and facilitating and promoting 1 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/pdf/report_e.pdf pg. viii http://www43.statcan.ca/03/03b/03b_000_e.htm 3 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-119-7-1998E.pdf pg.24 4 A recurring issue in the field of climate change impacts and adaptation is uncertainty. There is uncertainty in climate change projections (degree and rate of change in temperature, precipitation and other climate factors), imperfect understanding of how systems would respond, uncertainty concerning how people would adapt, and difficulties involved in predicting future changes in supply and demand. Given the complexity of these systems, uncertainty is unavoidable, and is especially pronounced at the local and regional levels where many adaptation decisions tend to be made. Nonetheless, there are ways to deal with uncertainty in a risk management context, and most experts agree that present uncertainties do not preclude our ability to initiate adaptation. From http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/pdf/report_e.pdf 2 7 adaptation without discouraging innovation, initiative, and enterprises.5 There are some circumstances where regulation such as revisions in the code and standards for infrastructure may be necessary in the interests of public safety to ensure that changing climate risks are factored into design and construction.6 The impacts of climate change are expected to affect the productivity of various sectors in Canada. Several studies have suggested policy measures that are necessary to address the challenges climate change will present to each sector respectively. Overall, Canadian policy to date has been focused on mitigation. In 2003, a Canadian Senate report entitled Climate Change: We Are At Risk was released.7 The report observed that government initiatives, particularly those of the Federal government, were overwhelmingly focused on climate change mitigation strategies such as GHG emission reduction, and recommended a renewed focus on adaptation. It suggested that the Federal government take a leadership role in coordinating a national adaptation strategy and that funding toward climate change impacts and adaptation research be increased at least to the level of current funding of mitigation initiatives. Scientific research and stakeholder engagement also suggests that adaptation needs to be the focus of government policy in order to address the challenges that climate change presents to the agricultural, fisheries, forestry, water, and energy sectors. Adaptation refers to activities that minimize the negative impacts of climate change, as well as to activities that allow users to take advantage of new opportunities that may be presented.8 There are two types of adaptation: planned (or anticipatory) adaptation, and reactive adaptation.9 Planned adaptation is implemented before the impacts occur and is most effective where several options are considered, and typically involves collaboration among different groups.10 Usually, a number of meetings and long discussions are required to undertake planned adaptation.11 Whereas reactive adaptation usually occurs after the impacts have already been felt. Reactive adaptation most commonly takes place after an unforeseen natural disaster, or when dealing with unmanaged systems.12 In most cases, planned adaptation is the most cost effective and efficient type of adaptation as it involves a well thought out -and priced- process or plan of action.13 Within the federal government, the climate change file is co-managed by two Ministries: the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of the Environment. Both Ministries are committed to make climate change a national priority and to 5 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/pdf/full-complet_e.pdf pg. 431 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/pdf/full-complet_e.pdf pg. 431 7 http://www.parl.gc.ca/37/2/parlbus/commbus/senate/com-e/agri-e/rep-e/repfinnov03-e.pdf 8 http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/paper_wrr_mehdi.pdf 9 http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/paper_wrr_mehdi.pdf 10 http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/paper_wrr_mehdi.pdf 11 http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/paper_wrr_mehdi.pdf 12 http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/paper_wrr_mehdi.pdf 13 http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/paper_wrr_mehdi.pdf 6 8 work closely with Canadians and the global community to provide the public with the most up-to date resources, information, ideas and approaches to protect Canada’s climate, and help Canadians to adapt. There is also research conducted within specific Federal departments, including but not limited to, Agriculture, Fisheries and Oceans, Health and Infrastructure. At the Federal level, Natural Resources Canada has created the Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program (CCIAP) and the Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network (C-CIARN). The Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program (CCIAP) is working to reduce Canada's vulnerability to climate change. The research program was set up in 2000 to support research that addresses gaps in the knowledge of Canada's vulnerability to climate change. One of the criteria for obtaining funding is to work with a stakeholder group. The program provides funding for research and activities to improve knowledge of Canada’s vulnerability, to better assess the risks and benefits posed by climate change and to build the foundation on which appropriate decisions on adaptation can be made by decision-makers. To date, the program has funded over 100 projects on adaptation in Canada. The Ministry also supports the Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network (C-CIARN) which is a network of researchers and stakeholders. The Network is a response to the Kyoto Protocol which put emphasis on the need to adapt to climate change as well as to mitigate greenhouse gases. C-CIARN was created to foster increasing cooperation between stakeholder parties and researchers, to identify the potential impacts of climate change and to increase stakeholder approaches to adapting. The network promotes new climate change research techniques and methodologies, disseminates information on impacts and adaptation, and determines knowledge gaps in the adaptation community that need addressing. This information is used in part by the federal government to issue calls for research proposals. The C-CIARN network is comprised of six regional offices (Atlantic, Quebec, Ontario, Prairies, British Columbia and the North) and seven sectoral offices (Water Resources, Agriculture, Fisheries, Coastal Zones, Landscape Hazards, Forestry, and Health) spread out across Canada, to help address these problems. Each sector focuses on issues that are pertinent across the country, while each region integrates the issues of particular relevance in each sector. To date, the C-CIARN network has over 2500 members and has hosted over 60 workshops, and produced scores of reports and publications on climate change impacts and adaptation, all of which have been widely distributed amongst the impacts and adaptation community.14 As of 2005, all of the monies for the program have been allocated. Projects under the following broad themes were funded: Water Resources, Coastal Zones, Communities, Agriculture, Ecosystems, Forestry, Fisheries, Health, Landscape Hazards, Tourism, Transportation, and Cross-Cutting. The government is currently conducting a departmental evaluation which will measure how well the Program 14 Paragraph sourced directly from: http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/paper_wrr_mehdi.pdf 9 has met its stated objectives and to determine what the next steps will be with regards to the adaptation agenda in Natural Resources Canada. 15 Environment Canada has established the Adaptation and Impacts Research Group (AIRG) whose goal is to ensure the availability of information for Canadian decision and policy makers on the environmental, social and economic impacts caused by vulnerabilities to atmospheric change, variability and extremes, as well as viable adaptive responses. The AIRG has partnered with four Canadian universities (the University of Toronto, the University of British Columbia, York University and the University of Waterloo). The partnerships were created to promote the interaction between the AIRG and the university’s faculty and staff, and to undertake research in the AIRG’s key research priorities which are: identifying the impacts of atmospheric change; identifying and assessing adaptive responses; strengthening the national and international research communities’ capacity for impact assessment; developing the analytical capacity for integrated assessment of atmospheric issues; and identifying barriers to implementation of adaptive and mitigation measures. 16 Reducing Canada’s Vulnerability to Climate Change (RCVCC) is a research program led by the Earth Sciences Sector of Natural Resources Canada. It aims to reduce Canadian vulnerability to climate change through effective adaptation strategies informed by geoscience and geomatics. RCVCC comprises several projects that target leaders, policy-makers and decision makers in key economic sectors, communities and governments. The program includes both targeted regional studies in collaboration with stakeholders and national-scale change detection using satellite data, monitoring of glaciers and monitoring ground conditions in permafrost regions.17 Several federal departments also have targeted programs that fund research that contributes to our understanding of climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation. For example, Environment Canada’s Northern Ecosystem Initiative is providing $1.0 million over five years to fund 14 projects that improve our understanding of how northern ecosystems and the people that depend on them are affected by climate change. These projects use both traditional ecological knowledge and traditional science to address issues of concern to northern peoples and governments. Current projects address concerns such as caribou herd changes, observations of changes in sea ice and their implications, and the effect of climate change on mercury in char.18 In 2005, the IAWG agreed upon a National Climate Change Adaptation Framework in 2005, which presented areas of potential inter-jurisdictional collaboration to increase Canada’s capacity to adapt to climate change, to recognize and reduce risks, 15 Paragraph sourced directly from: http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/paper_wrr_mehdi.pdf Paragraph sourced directly from: http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/paper_wrr_mehdi.pdf 17 Paragraph sourced directly from : http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/4th_Report_on_CC_e.pdf 18 Paragraph directly from: http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/4th_Report_on_CC_e.pdf 16 10 and to identify and pursue opportunities. It encompassed six elements, each with associated objectives and guidance on actions to facilitate their achievement. The six elements aim to:19 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. raise awareness of adaptation; facilitate and strengthen capacity for coordinated action on adaptation; incorporate adaptation into policy and operations; promote and coordinate research on impacts and adaptation; support knowledge-sharing networks; and, provide methods and tools for adaptation planning There are ongoing activities related to these elements within every jurisdiction. All orders of government have shown interest in information sharing, enhanced collaboration and cooperation on issues of common concern as being important for effective adaptation.20 Along with these Federal initiatives there are also a number of regional and provincial programs and policies such as the Ouranos Consortium (Québec), the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba), Manitoba Climate Change Action (Manitoba), Climate Change Central (Alberta) and the Water, Air and Climate Change Branch of the Ministry for Water, Land and Air Protection (British Columbia), and the Pacific Impacts Consortium (British Colombia). Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture Although agriculture is a vital component of the Canadian economy, only a small percentage of the country is actually farmed due to, in large part, climate and soil limitations. With the length of frost-free growing seasons restricted to between 200 days in the extreme south and merely a matter of weeks in the far north, Canadian soils remain inactive for a major part of the year.21 Furthermore, severe winters can cause frost damage even to dormant vegetation, thus restricting the cultivation of over-wintering crops, such as winter wheat, on the Prairies and in other similarly affected areas. 22 When growing seasons do arrive, growth rates of plants in Canadian climates are further restricted by the amount of heat energy available to them during the season. 23 These factors impose major limitations on the types of crops that can be grown in Canada, as well as on the yields and the number of crops that can be harvested in one year.24 19 Paragraph directly from: http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/4th_Report_on_CC_e.pdf Paragraph directly from: http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/4th_Report_on_CC_e.pdf 21 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 37 22 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 37 23 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 37 24 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 37 20 11 Agriculture is very sensitive to climate. Under conditions of climate change, climate variability in major producing countries can have significant effects on world food supplies and markets. Figure 1 lists the projected climate changes in Canada and their impacts on the agriculture sector. Much of the research on the impact of climate change on Canadian agriculture has suggested positive gains in production. Across Canada, there would be considerable potential for cultivating higher yield crops requiring longer and warmer growing seasons, increased multi-cropping, and the expansion of agriculture northward.25 Grain corn could become an important agricultural crop in areas such as Manitoba and northern Ontario, winter wheat could do well on the Prairies, and apples and grapes could become highly productive in Quebec. 26 The direct effects of higher carbon dioxide as a fertilizer for plants could further add to these benefits. 27 Figure 1: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Canada 28 Gains in productivity are expected due to: 1) increased production of wheat in the Prairies, 2) increased corn and soybean yields in Atlantic Canada, and 3) increased soybean, potato and winter wheat yields across the country These gains are generally associated with higher temperatures and extended growing seasons. However, climate change is expected to bring both 25 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 37 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 37 27 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 37 28 http://www.cbin.gc.ca/Docs/english/climate_monreal_e.pdf 26 12 advantages and disadvantages for agricultural crops in Canada, which are summarized in figure 2. Table 1, summarizes the expected regional impacts of climate change on agriculture. Table 1: Regional Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture29 Region West Provinces and Territories British Colombia Impacts Artic Yukon Northwest Territories Prairies Nunavut Alberta Have not found Data Have not found Data       Saskatchewan Manitoba    Ontario Ontario Quebec Quebec Atlantic Canada New Brunswick      Increase precipitation Increased evapotransipration in north Reduction is crop diversity Severe of droughts Decreased production of wheat Across the prairies, crops yields will vary. All crops in Manitoba may decrease by 1%, Alberta wheat, barley and canola may decrease by 7% and Saskatchewan wheat, barley and canola may increase by 2-8%. The value of agricultural production in Alberta could fall by 5 percent. Farm income in Saskatchewan could fall by $160-273 million, leading to declines of between $146 million and $248 million in provincial income. Grain sales in Manitoba could either rise or fall by several millions of dollars. . If drought conditions similar to those in 1961 prevail, provincial agricultural output could decline by almost 20 percent, resulting in a loss of $400 million in revenue. Corn and soybean cultures will shift northward Pressure for fresh water irrigation will affect the Great Lakes Lengthened growing season Longer growing period for apple and grape production Flooding in the St. John Valley may be more frequent Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland Labador and 29 Adapted from http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-119-7-1998E.pdf pp. 117-118 and http://www.iisd.org/pdf/agriculture_climate.pdf 13 Figure 2: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Canada Source: http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/pdf/report_e.pdf In other studies, negative impacts are projected to result from increased winter damage of forage crops, increased problems with insect pests, and water shortages. Warmer winters would reduce cold stress, but would also increase the risk of damaging winter thaws and potentially reduce the amount of protective snow cover. As well, many crops, are sensitive to heat stress, particularly during key stages of development, and may be adversely affected by the increased frequency and severity of summer heat waves. Impacts would vary regionally and with the type of crop being cultivated. Studies have suggested that yields of certain crops (e.g., grain corn in the Maritimes and canola in Alberta) may increase, while others (e.g., wheat and soybeans in Quebec) could decline.30 Climate warming is expected to increase the frequency of extremely hot days, which have been shown to directly damage 30 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/pdf/report_e.pdf pg. xii 14 agricultural crops. As well, changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events (e.g., droughts, floods and storms) have been identified as the greatest challenge that the agricultural industry would face as a result of climate change. 31 Extreme events are difficult to both predict and prepare for, they can devastate agricultural operations. Several times in the past extreme whether events affected farm operations across the country, causing significant reductions in crop yields and increased outbreaks of insects and disease.32 Weather extremes are the major cause of crop disasters, and recent events in the Canadian Prairies, such as the sequence of drought years between 2000 and 2003, as well as the very wet year in many parts of that region in 2004, while not unprecedented in Canada’s climate history, are in many respects useful examples of what may occur more frequently during the decades to come. 33 Climate models suggest that there will be changes in summer precipitation and the duration and severity of droughts may increase significantly. When rain does occur it is expected to be more intense, increase the likelihood of floods, and create excessive soil moisture. Climate change is also expected to impact moisture availability, which is a key concern for agriculture in Canada. As the supply of water decreases during the growing season, while the demand for water increases due to greater crop production, the supply of water may not meet the demands of the sector in the future. With limited adequate water available, the projected gains in productivity would not be realized. Water shortages are expected to be a problem in several regions of Canada (see Water Resources). In addition to its impact on crops, climate change is also expected to affect livestock operations. It is projected that there will be both negative and positive impacts on livestock, with warmer weather decreasing feed requirements, increasing survival of young and reducing energy costs, while increased heat stress would adversely affect milk production, meat quality and dairy cow reproduction. Under conditions of climate change there is also the risk of severe pest infestation as insects, pests, and plant diseases respond well and quickly to climate change. These factors could have devastating impacts on crop yields in the future. Climate change is expected to change global production opportunities and the basic structure of international and interregional trade in agriculture and could have major implications for Canada’s competitive position. Some estimates suggest, that world wheat crop production is expected to decline 10% every decade as the climate changes.34 Canada will have the potential to fill some of this global shortage. 31 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/pdf/report_e.pdf pg. xii http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/pdf/report_e.pdf pg. xii 33 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 38 34 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-119-7-1998E.pdf pp. 117-118 32 15 Table 4 shows the expected increases and decreases in grain production as a result of climate change.35 Table 2: Expected Changes in World Grain Production under Climate Change36 Region Wheat Corn Barely Oats Soyabeans Rice Canada Increase Increase Decrease Decrease Decrease n/a Other Decrease Decrease n/a n/a Decrease n/a North/Central America South Decrease Decrease n/a n/a Decrease n/a America Europe Decrease Decrease Decrease Decrease n/a n/a Africa Decrease n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Former Soviet Increase Increase Decrease Decrease n/a n/a Union Asia Decrease n/a n/a n/a n/a Increase Oceania Decrease n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Already, changes in demand and production yields of wheat are being experienced in Canada. Revenues have fluctuated between $3.8 to $5.95 billion over the last five years, the harvested area has increased from 24.7 million acres to 34.3 million acres and production has increased from 19.9 million tonnes to 31.2 million tonnes.37 In Nova Scotia, data indicates that 12 of the past 15 growing seasons have exceeded the 50% probability level in terms of heat units, and 4 out of 5 have been exceedingly dry. There has been a northern migration of corn production in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, and an increase in soybean production throughout the region, with an increased adoption of weather sensitive crops.38 Adaptations to climate risks and opportunities could involve innovations in farm management practices, crop breeding, weather forecasting, farm financing, crop insurance, and government relief programs. These impacts and adaptation issues are NOT well addressed in current research programs and little information exists on their implications for the agri-food sector.39 According to Herbert and Burton (1995), the cost of agriculture adaptation to current climate in Canada is over $1.3 billion, and the costs of adaptation (e.g. crop insurance, irrigation, research and development) are likely to increase under climate change (with the exception of a decrease in the cost of heating fuel).40 35 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-119-7-1998E.pdf pg. 117, note: does not include synergistic changes such as sea-level rise or crop damage from insects. 36 Smit, 1989 in http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-119-7-1998E.pdf pp. 117-118 37 http://www.c-ciarn.uoguelph.ca/documents/2002_pdf_summary_fewgraphics.pdf pg. 9 38 http://www.c-ciarn.uoguelph.ca/documents/2002_pdf_summary_fewgraphics.pdf pg. 7 39 http://www.c-ciarn.uoguelph.ca/documents/2001_Workshop_Report.pdf pg. 5 40 http://www.iisd.org/pdf/agriculture_climate.pdf 16 Agriculture: Existing Policies and Policy Gaps Adapting to a changing and variable climate is nothing new for Canadian farmers. Despite their adeptness at rising to the added challenge of climate change, there are still major gaps between research which has identified successful adaptation strategies in agriculture and government policy. Professor Barry Smit of the University of Guelph and Professor Mark W. Skinner of Queen’s University in 200241 argue that there are two main policy areas that government can focus towards: (1) technological developments, and (2) programs and subsidies such as: a) agricultural subsidies b) crop insurance, and c) resource management programs. Technological developments are defined as research based adaptation strategies undertaken or sponsored by provincial and/or federal governments that are directed at: a) increasing the tolerance of crops to variability in moisture levels or by designing new irrigation strategies, b) providing better access to information regarding weather and climate forecasts, and c) better resource management in dealing with climate related risks Technological development in agriculture is a means of protecting crops from the impacts of climate change such as the extremes of drought or excessive moisture. New technologies that make crops resilient to weather extremes and variable water availability are a key adaptive strategy. Currently, new crop technologies are largely being led by the private sector and there are no coherent national or provincial strategies that deal specifically with adaptation technologies for crops or technology transfer. As well, at the provincial level only disparate levels of support for technological development are being provided. Although the research branch of AAFC has a mandate to develop new stress resistant crop varieties, this program has no specific focus on climate change adaptation R & D. AAFC’s science and innovation initiatives are primarily focused on helping farmers adapt to changing market demands. For example, AAFC has directed funding towards helping farmers adapt to market demand for flax, mushroom, and grape crops. However, the AAFC has yet to develop programs for research and innovation for crop demands under conditions of a changing climate. C-CIARN’s 2004 study indicated that many farmers are interested in technologies that were frost and drought resistant. To date, crop innovation is primarily lead by the private sector, for example, in the soybean industry in Ontario 90% of R&D is market based. 42 Research43 indicates that leaving climate change crop innovation to 41 Smit, B. and Skinner, M.W. (2002): Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology; Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, vol. 7, pp. 85-114. 42 Smithers, J, Blay-Palmer, A (2001) “Technology innovation as a structure for climate adaptation in agriculture” in Applied Geography 21 pg. 191 17 the private sector alone could lead to selective development that may not coincide with the concerns of farmers regarding climate change. As well, new crop may only offer a limited solution to climate change adaptation as many consumers are moving toward organic produce. C-CIARN’s 2004 study also found that Canadian farmers are concerned with greater access to technology transfers for their crops under the conditions of climate change.44 To date, government initiatives concerning technology transfer for crops exist, such the AAFC’s Accelerated Release Program, however such programs have yet to publicly commit to climate adaptation as a major policy focus. Instead, these technology transfer programs are focused on helping farmers adapt to changing market demand, such as changing markets for potato and potato products.45 In addition, the agriculture sector can adapt to climate change by providing better access to weather and climate related forecasts. The ability to more accurately predict drought onset, intensity, and termination requires improvements in the modeling and the monitoring in current drought conditions, as well as, better shortterm (seasonal) and longer term climate forecasts.46 The near record drought of 2001-2002 has brought calls from across the country for governments to take a leading role in the development of an early warning system and better coordination among various actors to avoid drought related disasters. It is worth noting that the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) has established a “Drought Watch” website, which offers drought forecasting based on climate forecast modeling47, and most provinces have made climate mapping and drought information services available online in some form or other.48 For example, the AgroClimatic Information Service of Alberta provides weekly on-line updates on climate conditions relating to drought such as moisture levels, temperatures, and precipitation. However, one problem that has been pointed out with online forecasting is that not all farmers may have access to the internet or may find the information easy to access. Information is becoming more widely available; however accurate forecasting has yet to be combined with a national drought warning system that can inform farmers in a timely manner. Finally, better management of resources is an important component of adaptation to climate change in the agriculture sector. Common suggestions include better management of water resources such as improving irrigation systems and adjusting the selection of planting dates and cultivars. For example, to deal with historic water shortages in southern Alberta, irrigation canals were upgraded, water storage capacity was increased, and irrigation management was improved.49 Provincially, 43 Smithers, J, Blay-Palmer, A (2001) “Technology innovation as a structure for climate adaptation in agriculture” in Applied Geography 21 175-197 44 http://www.c-ciarn.uoguelph.ca/documents/Meeting_2004.pdf 45 http://www4.agr.gc.ca/AAFC-AAC/display-afficher.do?id=1203094310596&lang=e 46 http://www.c-ciarn.uoguelph.ca/documents/agri_adapt_cc.pdf pg. 14 47 http://www.agr.gc.ca/pfra/drought/index_e.htm 48 For example, see Alberta’s site here: http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/sag6300 49 http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/ agri_4_e.php 18 the Government of Saskatchewan has created a Canada-Saskatchewan Irrigation Diversification Center, which promotes economically and environmentally sustainable irrigation practices to producers and industry. However, at the national level there are no public policies to date to address these resource management issues. In addition to technological developments, governments can initiate programs and subsidies to help agriculture adapt to climate change. Safety net programs for agriculture can include a variety of measures to protect farmers from weather and market related risks. For example, government provisions of farm disaster protection, cost of production coverage, farm income stabilization, rewards for environmental stewardship, guaranteed minimum income, and commodity specific price support are all types of agriculture safety net programs. Government programs and subsidies are defined as direct institutional responses to the risks associated with climate change such as: a) agricultural subsidies b) crop insurance, and c) resource management programs Agricultural subsidy and support programs involve modifications to and investment in established and ad hoc government programs. Established subsidy programs, such as the Canadian Agricultural Income Stabilization Program (CAIS), provide farmers with a payment when their current year farm income is less then their average farm income from previous years. Ad hoc programs provide compensation for disaster related income loss independent of the support provided by crop insurance. For example, the Agricultural Policy Framework’s Disaster Relief Program covers costs associated with recovery from the disaster and returning producers to operation, actions taken by producers to mitigate the impacts of the disaster, and the repackaging and disposing of unmarketable supplies.50 Such measures can offer farmers income subsidization when financial shortfalls occur. Under conditions of climate change if farm production falls, or farmers experience potential crop losses, such programs may become important. Uncontrollable weather can ruin crops and wreak havoc with farm budgets. 51 Crop insurance, sometimes referred to as production insurance, offers financial protection against crop losses due to uncontrollable weather. Crop insurance pays compensation to ease some of the financial hardship when farmers suffer financial misfortune.52 As such, crop insurance is an important component of climate change 50 Growing Forward Disaster Relief Framework: http://www4.agr.gc.ca/AAFC-AAC/displayafficher.do?id=1200408916804&lang=e 51 BC Ministry of Agriculture and Lands- Production insurance: http://www.al.gov.bc.ca/production_insurance/ 52 Ibid. 19 adaptation for the farming sector. Canada’s current Agricultural Policy Framework (APF) and the new Growing Forward53 strategy replacing it, employ a range of Business Risk Management strategies that are designed to support Canadian farmers. This “BRM Suite” involves subsidized crop insurance, which is split between the province, the federal government, and the farmer, a producer savings account, and a disaster relief framework. However, the question of how effective crop insurance is at mitigating the impacts of climate change is the subject of much debate. The 2003 Senate Report found crop insurance programs, while providing a safety net, can also provide a disincentive for farmers to adapt to climate change as the insurance can create a ‘no one can lose’ situation. For example, farmers in some areas base their cropping decision on the return they can expect from crop insurance. Resource management programs involve the development of government policies and programs that encourage or discourage changes in land use, water use, and management practices.54 This type of adaptation includes the development of land use regulations, water use permits, and ‘best management’ practices.55 Canada’s National Land and Water Information Service provides open and free access to data, information, and tools over the internet to support sound land use decision making by Canadians. 56 For example, their Land Cover Monitoring Program supports a range of agri-environmental information and application needs including development of agri-environmental performance indicators, decision making and monitoring for land use and management, climate change monitoring, environmental farm planning and incentive programs for the adoption of beneficial management practices.57 However, across the country legislation on land use and water management has yet to integrate climate change considerations. Adaptation to climate change can also be achieved through the adoption of ‘best management practices’. For example, historical instances of drought suggest that better management is necessary in Canadian agriculture. The Agricultural Adaptation to Drought (ADA) synthesis report in 200758 indicated one of the largest barriers to the adequate implementation of drought management strategies such as irrigation and water conservation was a lack of funds, lack of research, lack of timely knowledge of drought conditions, and the often lengthy bureaucratic procedures that farmers had to wade through to obtain water permits.59 In general, although the above safety nets are important for the long term stability of Canadian farming, contestation exists regarding whether they may help or hinder climate change adaptation. For example, Dr. Cecil Nagy, from the University of Saskatchewan, has noted that it is currently difficult to say whether safety net 53 http://www4.agr.gc.ca/AAFC-AAC/display-afficher.do?id=1207252882484&lang=e#1 Smit and Skinner, 2002 55 Ibid. 56 Canada’s National Land and Water Information service: http://www.agr.gc.ca/nlwis/index_e.cfm 57 Ibid. 58 http://www.c-ciarn.uoguelph.ca/documents/agri_adapt_cc.pdf 59 Ibid., pg. iv 54 20 programs will be able to respond to climate change problems over the long term. A number of questions need to be answered, including60: 1. Will safety net programs encourage farmers to take advantage of the adaptation options that are available? 2. Will safety net programs limit or support farmers in using available adaptation options? 3. In terms of funding over the long term, are the current programs designed to meet the challenge that climate change will present? 4. Can these programs be adapted as necessary to new conditions? However, the Senate Report concluded that the Agriculture Policy Framework (APF) provides an excellent opportunity to incorporate climate change adaptation into Canadian agricultural policy. Through production insurance, the new Net Income Stabilization Account (NISA) programs, and tax deferral designations, the APF provides business risk management options to deal with climate change risks. In addition, C-CIARN 2004 demonstrated that there are a range of policy options open to Canadian agriculture in adapting to the risks identified in Table 3. Table 3: Summary of Risk Management and Policy Challenges, Solutions, and Recommendations Relevant for Climate Change (Agriculture)61 Challenge Economic Variability Specifics Variation in: -income -interest rates -energy costs -dollar value Solution Income stabilization Sector Variability Variation in conditions and requirements: -across commodities -across regions -across types of farming systems A “one size fits all” solution is not possible. Flexible policies/programs that lead to equitable results Recommendation for Policy • Main goal for agricultural policy should be agri-food sector stability. • AAFC and provincial Ministries of Agriculture should ensure the outcomes for the agrifood sector are considered when other ministries develop policy and programs that affect it. • Income stabilization programs must be adequate for future climate and weather risks. Ensure the diversity of conditions, needs and expectations for all sectors/regions are taken into account in policy and program development. 60 This section adapted from: Senate Report 2003: http://www.parl.gc.ca/37/2/parlbus/commbus/senate/com-e/agrie/rep-e/repfinnov03-e.pdf pg. 72 61 Source: http://www.c-ciarn.uoguelph.ca/documents/Meeting_2004.pdf 21 Main- Streaming Adaptation to climate risks must be considered in light of other business risk strategies Identify existing opportunities for integration into existing strategies • Farming systems management is highly integrated Identify potential barriers to integration and uptake • Become aware of real farm experiences Barriers to adaptation Adequate Support Communication • Some adaptation options for climate risk pose challenges for farming community: -additional costs to producers -GE solutions compromise marketing products -conflicts with existing policy Research needed to identify: -adaptation costs/benefits -implications of GE technology - potential conflicts and ways to make them complementary • Some options require improved resources: -technology is lagging (eg weather forecasting needs to be more reliable) -effective knowledge transfer and financial support (incentives) needed to encourage effective risk management Improved product development for “technological” adaptation options (eg. weather and climate forecasting) • Re-establish research and extension services that work directly with producers Establish climate change adaptation on “on-farm” demonstration sites Information about climate change risks is not always consistent or reliable Improved resources for generating information • Ensure information from government is well supported through research and presented in useful formats Require producer representation on research and policy development teams Insights from producers are not always recognized • View farm management practices in light of climate adaptation options Enhanced “extension” services • Place more value on producers’ knowledge Enhancing capacity Substantial support for research is needed; it must feature a producer perspective and “whole farm context” Research must include assessments of barriers to adaptation including the policy/program environment Include climate change adaptation in the APF; belongs directly in Business Risk Management but also relevant for the other “pillars” (Environment, Food Safety, Innovation, and Renewal) Support research that will: -provide long term and in-depth assessments -assess costs and benefits of climate risk adaptation options Develop policy and programs based on research findings Farming community needs more capacity to manage risks Look at past examples that worked (eg. need for new grape varieties • Work collaboratively with producers to ensure relevance of 22 Public image of Agri-food sector can be one “neediness” resulted in successful collaboration between industry and government) Initiatives that reward sound management • potential solutions Aim for policy environment that provides assistance while promoting producers’ independence Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries Most fish species have a distinct and complex set of environmental and habitat conditions within which they thrive and beyond which they decline and possibly perish.62 Air and water temperature, precipitation, and wind patterns all effect fish health, productivity, and distribution. The relationship between climate and fish resource is complex, involving both the direct effects on each species as well as the indirect effects through changes in abundance of food supply and predators. Under conditions of climate change, some species will become healthier and more abundant, and others may disappear completely. Shifting climatic conditions may also encourage the migration of new species into ecosystems resulting in invasion or changes in patterns of species domination. Evidence suggests that climate change is already an important factor in declining salmon stocks off the coast of British Columbia, while sockeye and pink salmon are being reported in Arctic regions well beyond their known range.63 In the Atlantic Ocean, recent rises in water temperatures are believed to have contributed to a decline in flounder.64 Changes in ocean climate also affect the distribution and significance of certain marine diseases, such as the eastern oyster disease, and the risks of harmful toxic algae blooms. In the Arctic, more open water may increase the food supply and hence abundance of many fish species, but could threaten Arctic cod and alter traditional northern fishing practices because of changes in sea ice cover.65 In fresh water lakes and rivers, warmer temperatures would generally benefit warm water fish such as bass and sturgeon, but reduce the abundance of cold water species like trout and lake salmon. New species that thrive in warmer waters can be expected to migrate into these lakes, competing with existing species, some of which may disappear completely.66 Lower water levels would threaten shoreline wetlands that provide important fish habit and result in degraded water quality. However, shorter ice cover seasons would reduce over winter fish mortality.67 62 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 39 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 39 64 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 39 65 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 40 66 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 40 67 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 40 63 23 The relationship between ecological changes and the fishery sector is complex. Table 4 identifies the expected changes in climate and their subsequent effects on marine ecosystems and thereby the fishing industry. Table 4: Changes in Climate: Fish Ecology and Consequences for Fisheries 68 Impacts of Fish Ecology Consequences for Fisheries - Change in overall fish production in a - Change in sustainable harvests for all fish particular aquatic ecosystem populations in the ecosystem - Change in relative productivity of individual - Change in the relative levels of exploitation fish populations in a particular aquatic that can be sustainably directed against the ecosystem fish populations of the ecosystem - Large scale shifts in geographic distribution - Change in the mixture of species that can be of species sustainably harvested within a specific geographic area - Change in location of profitable fishing grounds - Small scale shifts in the spatial distribution - Change in sustainable harvest for the of members of a specific population population - Change in efficiency of fishing gear, leading to change in sustainable levels of fishing effort Table 5 identifies some expected regional impacts of climate change on Canadian fisheries. Region West Table 5: Regional Impacts of Climate Change on Fisheries 69 Provinces and Impacts Territories British Colombia  Sea levels are expected to rise up to 30 cm on the north coast of British Columbia and up to 50 cm on the north Yukon coast by 2050, mainly due to warmer ocean temperatures. This Yukon could cause increased sedimentation, permanent inundation of some natural ecosystems, and place certain marine species at risk.  Increased winter precipitation, permafrost degradation, and glacier retreat due to warmer temperatures may lead to landslides in unstable mountainous regions, and put fish and wildlife habitat at risk.  Glacier reduction could affect the flow of rivers and streams that depend on glacier water, with potential negative impacts on fish habitat.  Summer droughts along the south coast and southern interior will mean decreased stream flow in those areas, putting fish survival at risk.  Migrating salmon, are extremely sensitive to slight changes in the temperature of their environment. Studies of sockeye, 68 http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/pdf/fish_responses.pdf pg. 5 Adapted from http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/overview_canada-e.html; http://www-comm.pac.dfompo.gc.ca/publications/speciesbook/introduction/climate.html; and http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/pdf/report_e.pdf pg. xvi; and http://www.ucowr.siu.edu/updates/pdf/V112_A3.pdf 69 24  Artic Northwest Territories  Nunavut      Prairies Alberta  steelhead and coho populations have already turned up evidence of the effects of declining ocean nutrient levels due to climate change and the mixing of fresh water and salt water. Changes in ocean currents will lower temperatures will force species that require cooler waters to travel further north, increasing migration times and reducing the fish's ability to reach spawning grounds. Fish shifting northward 150 km for each degree increase in air temperature. A decrease in sea-ice cover would affect marine productivity, fish distribution and fishing practices (e.g., accessibility to sites, safety), as well as marine mammals. Climate change has already begun to affect fisheries and marine mammals along the Arctic coast. Currently, types of salmon outside of known species ranges may be early evidence that distributions are shifting. The opening of the Northwest Passage to international shipping would also affect Arctic fisheries, through the increase in traffic, pollution and noise in the region. Key climate change impacts for freshwater fisheries are expected to result from higher water temperatures, lower water levels, shifts in seasonal ice cover and the invasion of new and exotic species. Semi-permanent and seasonal wetlands could dry up, leading to reduced production of waterfowl and other wildlife species Saskatchewan Ontario Manitoba Ontario       Quebec Quebec  Atlantic Canada New Brunswick  Nova Scotia  Warmer water temperatures are expected to change aquatic ecosystems and alter wetlands Warmer water exotics will invade the Great Lakes. Changes in winter survival, growth rates, and thermal habitat generally increase in deep-latitude lakes In smaller mid-latitude lakes, particularly those that do not stratify or are more eutrophic, warming may reduce habitat for many of the cool-water and cold-water species because deep-water thermal refuges in summer are not present or become unavailable as a consequence of declines in dissolved oxygen concentrations Climatic warming will produce a general shift in species distributions northward, with extinctions and extirpations of cold water species at lower latitudes and range expansion of warm-water and cool-water species into higher latitudes. Expand the ranges of smallmouth bass and yellow perch northward across Canada by about 500 km Lower water levels in the St. Lawrence River will effect the marine environment of the river Atlantic Canada is particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels, whose impacts could include greater risk of floods; coastal erosion; coastal sedimentation; and reductions in sea and river ice. Potential impacts include the loss of fish habitat 25 Prince Edward Island  Newfoundland and Labador    Climate change has already influenced production with a shift from groundfish to shellfish Future warming trends may impact the shellfish populations on which the region now relies. Concerns over increasing frequency and intensity of toxic algal blooms which can cause shellfish poisoning, may increase. Concerns over changes in spawning environment and migration of Atlantic Salmon Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on fish populations and sustainable harvests. As conditions change in response to a changing climate, fish would be impacted both directly and indirectly. However, what role climate change will play in abundance levels of fish stocks is the subject of much debate.70 Sorting out which changes in fish populations are the result of long-term climate change, regime shifts or shorter term weather patterns presents enormous challenges. Because fish stocks are influenced by so many factors, including over fishing, a relationship between climate change and marine species cannot be easily determined. 71 See table 6 for some possible changed to fish populations in Canada under conditions of climate change. Table 6: Expected Changes to Fish Populations under Climate Change in Canada72 Fish Salmon Shellfish Trout Cod Impacts Temperature changes affect salmon reproduction directly Temperature effects predator-prey dynamics and habitat Changes in river flows and extreme climate events have also been shown to affect salmon survival and production One possibility is that salmon will retreat northwards as the oceans warm. By the time the salmon complete what will be lengthier migrations to spawn, they will be weaker and fewer in number, however this may be offset by reduced mortality of juvenile salmon as they head out to see. Currently the most valuable catch. Water temperature has been shown to have a strong influence on snow crab reproduction and distribution. Concern that the frequency and intensity of toxic algal blooms, shellfish poisoning. Higher water temperatures have been shown to decrease the growth rate and survival of rainbow trout Northward migration of fish species and local extinctions are expected, and would lead to changes in sustainable harvests Higher temperatures and lower water levels would also exacerbate water quality problems, which would increase fish contamination and impair fish health. Cod will likely spread northwards along the coast of Labrador, occupy larger, may even 70 http://www-comm.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/publications/speciesbook/introduction/climate.html www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/posters/ac/ac_10_e.php 72 Adapted from http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/pdf/report_e.pdf pg. xvi and http://doc.nprb.org/web/BSIERP/Drinkwater%20Cod%20and%20Climate%20Change%202005.pdf 71 26 extend onto some of the continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean. Spawning sites will be established further north than currently. It is likely that spring migrations will occur earlier, and fall returns will be later. There is the distinct possibility that, where seasonal sea ice disappears altogether, cod will cease their migration. Individual growth rates for many of the cod stocks will increase, leading to an overall increase in the total production of Atlantic cod in the North Atlantic. Responses of cod to future climate changes are highly uncertain, as they will also depend on the changes to climate and oceanographic variables besides temperature, such as plankton production, the prey and predator fields, and industrial fishing. While it is impossible to say at this point whether the effects of climate change will increase or decrease Canada’s commercial stock of fish, what is certain is that commercial fisheries will not be able to continue doing business as usual. Climate change effects will be responsible for changes in: traditional fishing patterns, species available for consumption, and location of the best fishing grounds.73 For many Canadians, particularly in aboriginal and small coastal communities, fishing it is a way of life – and an inherent part of their culture. Hence the well-being of fish resources is economically and socially important. Changes in fish stock are expected to disrupt the international fish market, to which Canada is a large supplier. However, loss of volume does not necessarily mean loss of revenue for Canada’s fisheries. For example, between 1990 and 1994, the volume of fish commercially available had fallen by 620 kilotonnes, but the revenue received for the year’s harvest rose by $276 million.74 In this industry, climate change may well result in an improvement in Canada’s competitive position. If the rest of the fishing industry also suffers a drop in catch volume, the commercial price of fish may rise enough to offset the loss financially.75 Fisheries: Existing Policies and Policy Gaps There are many different adaptation options available to the fisheries sector, most of which are modeled on actions that were taken in response to non-climate stresses on the sector in the past.76 Three main approaches to policy and adaptation have been recommended thus far: 1) Increasing the monitoring capacities of all stakeholders in order to more accurately understand the spatial distribution and relative abundance of fish stocks 2) enhancing the adaptive capacity of fish species by reducing non-climatic stresses and maintaining genetic diversity, and 3) improving research and communication between stakeholders.77 73 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-119-7-1998E.pdf pg. 98 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-119-7-1998E.pdf pg. 98 75 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-119-7-1998E.pdf pg. 98 76 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/fish_4_e.php 77 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/summary_7_e.php 74 27 At the Federal level the Department of Fisheries and Oceans has undertaken steps to more accurately understand the spatial distribution and abundance of fish stocks. Policies for the Conservation of Wild Pacific and Atlantic salmon are promising steps towards meeting the challenges presented by climate change to Pacific fish stocks. Legislated in 2005, the goal of the Pacific Wild Salmon Policy is “to restore and maintain healthy and diverse salmon populations and their habitats for the benefit and enjoyment of the people of Canada in perpetuity”. This includes identifying and managing "Conservation Units" (CUs) that reflect their geographic and genetic diversity. A CU is a group of wild salmon sufficiently isolated from other groups that, if lost, is very unlikely to re-colonize naturally within an acceptable timeframe. The status of CUs are monitored and assessed against selected benchmarks, and reported publicly. Where monitoring indicates low levels of abundance, or deterioration in the distribution of the spawning components of a CU, a full range of management actions to reverse declines – including habitat, enhancement, and harvest measures – are considered and an appropriate response implemented.78 Currently, the Department of Fisheries and Oceans has a wide range of policies and programs dedicated toward the protection of the marine and freshwater environment. The conservation and protection of fish habitat has been enshrined in law and has evolved as an important area of public policy.79 Canada's Parliament, through its Constitutional authority for seacoast and inland fisheries, enacted the Fisheries Act in 1868 as one of the country's first laws. The Fisheries Act was subsequently amended to add specific provisions for the conservation and protection of fish habitat, referred to as the habitat protection and pollution prevention provisions.80 Over the years, the Fish Habitat Management Program (FHMP) evolved with the tabling in Parliament of the Policy for the Management of Fish Habitat (the Habitat Policy) in 1986 and the addition of responsibility for the application of the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA) in 1995 and the Species at Risk Act (SARA) in 2004.81 The Policy for the Management of Fish Habitat, works to control the potential adverse effects on fish habitats of liquid effluent discharges, water withdrawals, physical disturbances, non-point- sources of chemical pollutants such as pesticides, other environmental contaminants, and the introduction of exotic species, predators, parasites and competitors. Such legislation and policy approaches are important for enhancing the adaptive capacity of fish species by reducing non-climatic stresses and maintaining genetic diversity. As well, Canada is signatory to international agreements with the Food Administration Organization (FAO) and the United Nations (UN) which provide cross-boarder cooperation in achieving sustainability objectives in the fishery sector. The Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Report (2004) concluded that to enhance the adaptive capacity of the fisheries sector, there is a need to increase stakeholder participation in decision making, improve the quality of information 78 http://www-comm.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/publications/wsp/wsp_e.pdf http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/oceans-habitat/habitat/policies-politique/index_e.asp 80 http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/oceans-habitat/habitat/policies-politique/index_e.asp 81 http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/oceans-habitat/habitat/policies-politique/index_e.asp 79 28 available to the public, create easily accessible data sets, and increase the lines of communication between industry, government, scientific researchers, coastal communities and the general public.82 The Internet has been suggested as an appropriate tool for the dissemination of information, although more conventional methods, such as workshops and town meetings, may also be appropriate.83 Improved communication will also help facilitate effective research collaborations between scientists, government, traditional resource users and the general public. 84 Research collaborations can address regional issues or national or international concerns.85 One example, is the Department of Fisheries and Oceans’ engagement with the Marine Conservation Caucus, a collection of conservation NGOs, to work with stakeholders towards improving marine conservation policy and programs. As well, the Government of Canada has been taking strides to provide online open public access to the latest scientific research and socio-economic research on fisheries through websites such as C-CIARN and NRCan. Despite these promising measures, some stakeholder organizations have been highly critical of the shortcomings in existing National policies.86 For instance, a lack of concrete baseline measures of what constitutes a ‘loss of habitat’, lack of knowledge regarding permissible levels of exploitation, and difficulty in monitoring the impact of aquaculture on wild fish stocks are some common problems with policy implementation.87 Moreover, such problems can reduce the effectiveness of these policies and programs with respect to climate change adaptation in the fisheries sector. Climate Change Impacts on Forestry Forests are a carbon sink—they take in carbon dioxide and convert it to wood, leaves and roots.88 They are also a carbon source—they release stored carbon into the atmosphere when they decompose or burn.89 As such, forests play a major role in the global carbon cycle. As the climate changes, forest carbon storage will be affected. A warmer climate can speed up vegetation growth, which means more carbon storage90 However, it can also accelerate decomposition, resulting in more carbon emissions, and boost the risk of drought, pest outbreaks and fire, all of which can significantly reduce carbon storage.91 The extent of these effects will also be influenced by the amount and/or timing of precipitation changes. Even small changes in temperature and precipitation can significantly affect the growth behaviour of trees. For example, a modest 1°C warming over the past 82 http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/cciarn_nrcan_fisheries_report.pdf http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/cciarn_nrcan_fisheries_report.pdf 84 http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/cciarn_nrcan_fisheries_report.pdf 85 http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/cciarn_nrcan_fisheries_report.pdf 86 See the members of their steering committee here: http://www.mccpacific.org/pages/about/mccstructure.htm 87 See the members of their steering committee here: http://www.mccpacific.org/pages/about/mccstructure.htm 88 http://canadaforests.nrcan.gc.ca/rpt#focus 89 http://canadaforests.nrcan.gc.ca/rpt#focus 90 http://canadaforests.nrcan.gc.ca/rpt#focus 91 http://canadaforests.nrcan.gc.ca/rpt#focus 83 29 century has already caused a significant increase in the length of the growing seasons and enhanced plant growth in mid to high latitudes of Canada.92 Trembling aspens in central Alberta now bloom more than three weeks earlier than they did 100 years ago. 93 Currently, the effects of climate change on Canadian forests are already being observed, these observations include: increased drought, more frequent and intense forest fires, insect and pest outbreaks, slower tree growth, and shifting wildlife habitats. Drought stress has already increased in parts of the Boreal Forest, particularly in western Canada—and tree growth and carbon sequestration have already begun to suffer as a result. As well, lack of water has already been linked to growth declines and reduced carbon absorption across the Boreal Forest.94 Likewise, drought stress has been correlated with range limitations and reduced growth in white spruce, one of the most widespread and important trees in the Canadian Boreal. As temperatures continue to rise, lack of water availability is expected to play a continuing role in limiting the growth and survival of some trees— especially in the drier parts in west-central Canada—compromising the health of the forest as well as its ability to sequester carbon.95 As temperatures rise forest fires are likely to become longer, more frequent and more intense destroying habitats, ecosystems, and adding more carbon to the atmosphere. Currently, forest fire cycles are speeding up. As much as 7,600,000 hectares (18,780,000 acres) of forest burn in Canada each year and boreal forest fires have doubled in frequency since 1970.96 The intensity of fires are increasing as well, as drier condition provide better quality fuel for fires, increasing their intensity and severity. In 2002, for some 2.8 million ha of Canadian forests were swept by fire. Experts agree that, in most regions of Canada, these losses will likely increase as temperatures rise (see Map 1). Map 1: Projected changes in forest fire risks in 2100 relative to today, calculated as a ratio of seasonal severity ratings97 92 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 35 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 35 94 Chapin FS, McGuire AD, Randerson J, Pielke R, Baldocchi D, Hobbie SE, Roulet N, Eugster W, Kasischke E, Rastetter EB, Zimov SA, Running SW (2000). Arctic and boreal ecosystems of western North America as components of the climate system. Global Change Biology 6, 211-223. 95 http://us.greenpeace.org/site/DocServer/turning-up-the-heat-global-w.pdf?docID=122 page 17 96 Chapin FS, McGuire AD, Randerson J, Pielke R, Baldocchi D, Hobbie SE, Roulet N, Eugster W, Kasischke E, Rastetter EB, Zimov SA, Running SW (2000). Arctic and boreal ecosystems of western North America as components of the climate system. Global Change Biology 6, 211-223. 97 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 37 93 30 Insect and pest outbreaks are another projected impact of global warming on forestry resources. Historically, many insects die off during the winter months when temperatures reach lower levels. However, winter temperatures are not reaching their usual lows, and many insects are surviving throughout the winter.98 The result is increased insect population growth, and severe damage to forests across Canada. The highest-profile example of these climate-induced insect outbreaks is the ongoing mountain pine beetle outbreak in the western provinces of British Columbia and Alberta. Where the mountain pine beetle’s population and range have historically been limited by freezing winters, warmer temperatures have allowed it to survive over the winter months.99 In 2001 alone, some 18.6 million ha of these forests were affected by insect defoliation.100 One possible future pest is the balsam woolly aphid, a sucking insect which attacks balsam fir and damages the wood quality by staining the cells and which may also cause tree mortality. The distribution of this insect pest is currently restricted by cold winter temperatures but the situation might change with global warming.101 The current problems caused by insect infestations such as the mountain pine beetle, the budworm, and other insects are only expected to increase as climate warming continues. There is also evidence that warming temperatures will reduce the growth and survival of some trees in Canada. Contrary to popular belief, it’s not necessarily true 98 (Stewart RB, Wheaton E, Spittlehouse DL [1998]. Climate change: Implications for the boreal forest. In: Emerging air issues for the 21st century: The need for multidisciplinary management. Proceedings. Speciality conference, Sep. 22-24, 1997, Calgary. AB. Legge AH, Jones LL [eds.]. Air and Waste Management Assoc., Pittsburg, PA.) 99 Stahl K, Moore RD, McKendry IG (2006). Climatology of winter cold spells in relation to mountain pine beetle mortality in British Columbia, Canada. Climate Research 32, 13 100 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 37 101 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection-R/LoPBdP/BP/bp254-e.htm#IMPACTStxt 31 that the warmer it gets in the bigger and faster trees will grow. Instead, it appears that trees have optimum temperatures above which growth starts to level out or decline.102 For example, climate warming may increase Boreal Forest growth initially, warming beyond a certain threshold will actually result in growth reductions. Some studies suggest that this point has already been reached, and that the Boreal is no longer benefiting from warmer temperatures.103 Warming temperatures can compromise tree survival as well. When temperatures fluctuate close to the freezing point, ice-crystal formation can give trees “frost burn” and other injuries.104 Wildlife habitats are expected to shift northward under conditions of global warming. Many animals will respond to increasing temperatures by shifting their ranges northward. As well, southerly temperate-zone species will likely be moving north, a dynamic which may cause conflicts and disruptions to ecosystem balance.105 There are at least 25 species (e.g. arctic fox, moose, grey wolf, red fox, caribou, muskox, grizzly bear, polar bear, and lynx) that have ranges bound by the Arctic Ocean to the north and that are likely to face pressure from species migrating from the south. The migrations of different plant and wildlife species are unlikely to happen at the same rates. Mismatches between species and ecosystems could disrupt forest ecology. In Canada, such mismatches have already resulted in increased mortality for bird populations. 106 With model projections of increases in temperatures of some 2 to 6°C and changes in precipitation patterns across much of Canada during the next 50 years, much larger impacts on its forests can be expected in the decades to come. The net impact on the biosphere and on Canadians will depend on a wide range of other biophysical and socio-economic factors, and hence will vary considerably from region to region. 107 The effects of climate change could be positive in one region and negative in another. Once forests have fully responded to these changes — a process that could take centuries — the distribution of ecozones across Canada will likely have been altered radically (See Map 2).108 102 Woodward FI (1987). Climate and plant distribution. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. in http://us.greenpeace.org/site/DocServer/turning-up-the-heat-globalw.pdf?docID=122 pg. 17 103 http://us.greenpeace.org/site/DocServer/turning-up-the-heat-global-w.pdf?docID=122 pg. 17 104 http://us.greenpeace.org/site/DocServer/turning-up-the-heat-global-w.pdf?docID=122 pg.17 105 http://us.greenpeace.org/site/DocServer/turning-up-the-heat-global-w.pdf?docID=122 pg.17 106 Martin TE (2001). Abiotic vs. biotic influences on habitat selection of coexisting species: Climate change impacts? Ecology 82, pp. 175-188. 107 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 35 108 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 35 32 Map 2: Potential changes in North American forest and grassland boundaries resulting from a typical doubled CO2 climate.109 The graphic on the upper left shows typical vegetation for current climate conditions while the lower right graphic shows new vegetation areas based on a simulated double CO2 climate. Areas where there is no change in vegetation type remain white. Table 7 offers a summary of regional impacts of climate change on Canada’s forests. The largest changes would occur in areas now covered by boreal forests, which span across Canada. At the southern edges of these forests, the dominant black spruce would gradually yield to the encroachment of grasslands and the evergreens and hardwoods of the cool temperate forests. 110 Meanwhile, at the northern margins, some northward expansion of the boreal forests into tundra regions would occur, although greatly delayed by the comparatively slow decay of the underlying permafrost and the poor quality of the soils in many parts in the tundra landscape.111 According to Environment Canada the boreal forest, currently occupying a wide swath that sweeps across Canada from Newfoundland to the Rocky Mountains and Alaska, making up some 82% of Canada’s forested area, is projected to shrink by 14%. At the same time, the cool temperate and moderate temperate climatic zones, currently covering only small southern areas of Canada, will grow to 15% and 5% of Canadian territory, respectively. Similarly, the grassland zone is projected to expand to 12% of total area from its current 5%.112 109 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 36 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 35 111 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 35 112 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection-R/LoPBdP/BP/bp254-e.htm 110 33 Region West Table 7: Regional Impacts of Climate Change on Forests 113 Provinces and Impacts Territories British Colombia  Drought stress and forest decline.  Increased frequency, duration, and intensity of forest fires  Infestation of mountain pine beetle. Yukon  Infestation of eastern spruce budworm, an extremely serious insect pest which causes defoliation of a number of valuable conifer species, including balsam fir, white spruce, hemlock, and eastern larch. Extensive tree damage and mortality in evergreen forests east of the Rock Mountains.  White spruce trees respond positively to small increases in temperature but then declined when mean temperatures rise above a critical threshold.  Decreased re-growth due to lower water levels and higher temperatures.  Warmer climate may result in an increase in winter damage to some tree species. If a warmer climate produces a decrease in snowfall, the frost may penetrate deeper into the ground and damage tree roots. This type of damage has already been implicated in the decline and death of hardwood trees. Arctic Northwest Territories  Prairies Nunavut Alberta    Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Ontario Quebec Quebec           Atlantic Canada 113 New Brunswick  Nova Scotia   Invasive alien species as wildlife migrates northward due to warmer conditions in the Arctic. Migration of temperate forests northward into the Arctic. Stunted growth in aspen tress due to lack of water High risk of intense and frequent forest fires, especially in Manitoba. Grasslands expand northward and eastward Land use conflicts between forestry and agriculture may arise as grasslands move northward Dieback of birch and maple due to climatic stress. Increased frequency, duration, and intensity of forest fires Decreased re-growth due to lower water levels and higher temperatures. Encroachment of grasslands. Higher levels of carbon, warmer temperatures, and more humid conditions could increase forest growth by 50-100% by 2050. Increased frequency, duration, and intensity of forest fires. Encroachment of grasslands. A warmer climate may result in an increase in winter damage to some tree species. If a warmer climate produces a decrease in snowfall, the frost may penetrate deeper into the ground and damage tree roots. Decline of Eastern Sugar Maple. Increased ultraviolet radiation, ground-level ozone pollution, and acid rain may affect soils and harm trees. Increased frequency, duration, and intensity of forest fires. Decreased re-growth due to lower water levels and higher Adapted from http://us.greenpeace.org/site/DocServer/turning-up-the-heat-global-w.pdf?docID=122 34 Prince Edward Island Newfoundland and Labador   temperatures. Encroachment of grasslands. a warmer climate may result in an increase in winter damage to some tree species. If a warmer climate produces a decrease in snowfall, the frost may penetrate deeper into the ground and damage tree roots. Decline of Eastern Sugar Maple. A rapidly changing climate has important implications for the forest sector and the more than 300 communities whose livelihood is closely associated with forests. Some studies suggest that forest production may increase by as much as 20% under conditions of climate change but actual harvesting levels may increase only by 3%, due to a 50 year lag as young stands reach harvesting age.114 However, unpredictable forest fires and water shortages caused by droughts could affect the ability of Canada to reach this potential growth in forestry productivity. Economic studies of the forestry sector show that both domestic and foreign consumers of wood and wood products would benefit in the short term under conditions of climate change. Canada will certainly export more lumber to the United States if its own domestic production increases as predicted. In this industry, climate change would likely increase Canada’s competitive position relative to that of its trading partners.115 Forestry: Existing Policies and Policy Gaps In 2002, a study performed by Perez-Garcia et al. showed that the market impacts of climate change are particularly significant for Canadian forestry producers. 116 The study suggested that Canada is in a uniquely vulnerable position relative to other forest products producing countries in the world (See Figures 3 and 4). As such, adapting to climate change in the sector is particularly important, and policies which recognize and address the impact of climate change on forests are particularly important. 114 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-119-7-1998E.pdf pp. 97-98 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-119-7-1998E.pdf pp. 97-98 116 http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/johnston_m.pdf 115 35 Figure 3: Trends in producer effects from climate change from 1995 to 2095 117 Figure 4: Market Impacts of Climate Change in the Year 2040118 In March of 2006 a research study entitled Adapting Forest Management to the Impacts of Climate Change in Canada developed a framework for understanding policy challenges as they related to the impact of climate change on forest management, as well as the forestry industry. With regard to forest management, the study argued that there were a number of different ways that uncertainty and risk could be managed through new innovative policies: 117 118 Source: http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/johnston_m.pdf Source: http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/johnston_m.pdf 36 a) targeted research and learning b) improved data and information sharing c) encouraging experimentation and adaptive management in forest management and planning d) investigating new kinds of institutional arrangements that are more effective at facilitating autonomous adaptation (e.g. is there a potential larger role for private markets in forest management in Canada?), and e) risk reduction strategies such as fire-smart landscapes (Hirsch et al. 2001).119 They also argued concluded that the most significant change that needs to occur to adapt to climate change is for forest managers to recognize and embrace the increasing levels of uncertainty that are anticipated to occur. To date, there is no national climate change policy for forests which may be attributed to the division powers under the Constitution in which S.92 A delegates provincial authority to jurisdiction over forests. As such, there are disparate policy approaches across the provinces with no coherence between them. As noted, targeted research and learning as well as information sharing is important for climate change adaptation in the forestry sector. Much government action to date on climate change adaptation in forestry has been focused on problem definition. For example, the Federal Canadian Forest Service’s national mandate focuses on climate change research on fire, enhanced timber production and protection, forest ecosystem process, forest health and biodiversity, and knowledge and information synthesis.120 The Government of Canada has also sponsored research sharing networks such as the Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network (C-CIARN) which produces scientific research, workshops, conference reports, and posters and other communication products. C-CIARN brings together all information being produced on climate change in Canada across all regions and across sectors, including forestry. Experimentation and adaptive management in forestry is an important component of adaptation policy. The Canadian Forest Service Forest 2020 Plantation Demonstration and Assessment encourages industry, local governments, and First Nations, to establish plantations of fast-growing tress on un-forested land. By late 2007, experimental plantations of trees which are growing at 8 times the national average will be growing on 10,000 hectares across the country. The long term goal of Forest 2020 is carbon sequestration under conditions of the Kyoto Protocol.121 The program also aims to provide new habitat for wildlife, quick impact recovery from pest and fire, and replanting after forest fires, presently and potentially under conditions of changing climate. The Canadian Forest Service through classical tree breeding as well as biotechnology, research has been investigating more drought119 http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/johnston_m.pdf Canadian Forest Service AFC climate change program: http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/projects/200 121 Ibid. 120 37 tolerant varieties of trees. The gene that is responsible for drought tolerance has been identified in some species, such as white pine.122 Another program, Canada’s Model Forest Program, with core funding and leadership from Natural Resources Canada, offers field laboratories for testing new approaches to forest management. For example, it examines the effects of climate change on individual model forests, smaller forest dependent communities, and how they can prepare themselves to manage and respond to these impacts.123 Given the range of adaptive management strategies, the Senate report concluded that Canada can afford the luxury of combining intensive forestry and high-yield plantations with the use of virgin and second-rotation forests for timber production.124 Adaptive management projects exist currently at the provincial level in various provinces. However, climate change impacts have yet to become an area of development. Research indicates that Provincial forest management agencies and forest product companies have not yet to date expressed significant interest in modifying forest management systems to modify climate risks. This is attributed to the uncertainly involved in climate change impacts on forests. As such, investigating new kinds of institutional arrangements that better manage forest resources at the federal or provincial level have not been undertaken. However, the Canadian Council of Forest Ministries has provided an important forum for the federal, provincial and territorial governments responsible for forests to work cooperatively to address major areas of common interest.125 The Council provides leadership on national and international issues and sets direction for the stewardship and sustainable management of Canada's forests.126 Risk reduction strategies are important to the forestry sector, particularly as forest fire risk increases under conditions of climate change. The Canadian Forest Service (CFS) Fire Research network has been conducting research into the effects of climate change on forest fires since the 1980s.127 Their work to date has involved the development of comprehensive historical databases of fire activity, and fire weather for estimation of the current state of the fire regime and the evaluation of historical trends.128 The goal of this work is to provide the best possible estimates of both future levels of fire activity and area burned within the Canadian forests.129 Another overarching approach is Firesmart Technologies developed by Natural Resources Canada, the provinces, the forest industry, and universities. Firesmart Technologies strategically integrates fire and forest management activities to reduce the overall flammability of forest landscapes through actions such as harvest scheduling, cut-block design, reforestation, and stand tending. In cooperation with municipal, provincial, and federal organizations, the most recent scientific information on this subject has been synthesized into a guidebook that can be used 122 http://www.parl.gc.ca/37/2/parlbus/commbus/senate/com-e/agri-e/rep-e/repfinnov03-e.pdf: pp. 42-43 Model Forest.net network initiatives climate change: http://www.modelforest.net/cmfn/en/initiatives/ 124 http://www.parl.gc.ca/37/2/parlbus/commbus/senate/com-e/agri-e/rep-e/repfinnov03-e.pdf 125 http://www.ccfm.org/main/about_e.php 126 http://www.ccfm.org/main/about_e.php 127 CSF Fire and Climate Change: http://fire.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/research/climate_change/factsheets/factsheet1_e.htm 128 Ibid. 129 Ibid. 123 38 to reduce fire risks to homes and communities.130 Firesmart Technologies may be useful under conditions of climate change as forest fires are expected to increase. There are institutional and policy barriers to responding to climate change in Canada. For example, seed planting zones, reforestation standards and hydrologic and wildlife management guidelines are designed for the current climate regime.131 There are no requirements for adaptation strategies in forest management plans, nor are there guidelines and sufficient experienced personnel to aid such activities.132 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources The impact of climate change on water resources is high priority issue. A clean and reliable water supply is critical for domestic use, food and energy production, transportation, recreation and maintenance of natural ecosystems. Although Canada possesses a relative abundance of water on a per capita basis, the uneven distribution of water resources and year-to-year variability mean that most regions of the country have experienced water-related problems, such as droughts, floods and associated water quality issues, and such problems are expected to become more common under conditions of climate change.133 In general, it is anticipated that climate change will lower water availability while introducing greater variability to levels and flows. The hydrological cycle is greatly influenced by temperature and precipitation, and even small changes in these parameters can affect water supply through shifts in runoff, evaporation and water storage (e.g., in glaciers, lakes and soil).134 There are still uncertainties, regarding the magnitude and direction of water flows given the limitations of current climate models. However, it is clear that extreme events, reduced ice cover and shifts in flow regimes, are some water related concerns throughout Canada. Overall, the most vulnerable regions would be those already under water stress, such as parts of the Prairies and the Okanagan Valley, where demand is already approaching or exceeding supply. Climate models project that, during the coming decades, water resources will become more abundant across much of northern Canada. Furthermore, its presence as snow and ice will decrease over time, being replaced by water in its liquid form. Consequently, winter stream flows are expected to increase across much of Canada, spring freshets will occur earlier, and peak melt water runoff will be lower in magnitude. However, slowly degrading permafrost will also change the ground water hydrology in the north, changing stream flows and breaking down natural barriers that currently control much of regional drainage patterns.135 130 http://www.parl.gc.ca/37/2/parlbus/commbus/senate/com-e/agri-e/rep-e/repfinnov03-e.pdf pg. 42 Bio cap: http://www.biocap.ca/rif/report/Johnston_M.pdf pg.39 132 Ibid. 133 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/pdf/report_e.pdf pg. ix 134 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/pdf/report_e.pdf pg. xi 135 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 39 131 39 In contrast, summer water abundance in southern Canada will likely decrease – and become more variable. In many regions, decreases in flow volumes and water levels are expected to create or increase water supply problems during the summer months. In the summer, it is expected that climate change will reduce water supply and flows in rivers, groundwater is expected to decrease, and lake levels are expected to lower. Various studies suggest that the combined effects of increased evaporation of surface water under warmer climates and altered precipitation patterns will likely cause summer meteorological droughts in the interior of southern Canada to become more frequent, more intense, and of longer duration. These will result in intervals of very low stream flows and lake levels and depleted ground water resources. For larger water reservoirs, this is expected to lead to persistent decreases in mean water levels. For example, some of the Great Lakes could experience a drop in water levels of a meter or more within the next 50 to 75 years. Such intense periods of water shortages will have major impacts on hydro electricity production, marine transportation, agricultural irrigation, water recreational activities, municipal water supply, and a range of other socio-economic uses. In Western Canada, these shortages will be exacerbated by the gradual disappearance of alpine glaciers that currently provide much of the freshwater input in regional streams and rivers in summer.136 As well, lower water levels and higher temperatures could increase levels of bacterial, nutrient and metal contamination, while an increase in flooding could increase the flushing of urban and agricultural waste into source water systems. This would cause taste and odor problems and increase the risk of water-borne health effects in communities across the country.137 Furthermore, severe droughts will cause increased degradation of water quality, greater risk of eutrophication and extensive harm to aquatic ecosystems. Ironically, while spring floods due to rapid snow melt may decrease in frequency, there may be an increase in the risk of drought.138 In the winter, less ice cover, more rain, and more frequent thaws could increase the risk of flooding in some areas. Some regional water quality concerns include saltwater intrusion in coastal areas and the rupture of water infrastructure in the North as a result of permafrost degradation. Competition for water use and political pressures for water transfers between hydrological basins will increase. As all sectors of the economy depend on water resources to some extent or another conflict over the resource is likely to occur between industrial uses, agriculture, residential uses, and industries that depend on aquatic ecosystems such as fisheries and recreation. Much of existing industry, built environments, and transportation/distribution systems are not particularly resilient to changes of the type and magnitude of changes in water, especially when destabilized by a greater number and severity of extreme events. Impacts are likely to affect aquatic ecosystems, wildlife, tourism, recreation, property values, 136 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 39 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/pdf/report_e.pdf pg. x 138 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 39 137 40 transportation, power generation, fisheries, effluent and drinking water treatment, channel dredging, infilling of impoundments and the local availability of water for agriculture, industry and urban areas. Figure 5 offers an example of the reverberating affects a change in water level would have on the environment, economy and society. Figure 5: Water as a Cross Sector Issue139 As water supplies diminish, at least seasonally, and water quality problems increase, there would be less high-quality water available for human use. At the same time, agricultural, residential and industrial demands (e.g., irrigation, lawn watering and equipment cooling, respectively), would likely increase in parts of the country that become warmer and drier. As a result, supply-demand mismatches are expected to become more common, and technological, behavioural and management changes would be required to deal with potential conflicts.140 For a summary of the regional effects of climate change on water resources see table 8. Region Table 8: Regional Impacts of Climate Change on Water141 Provinces and Impacts 139 Source: http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/pdf/report_e.pdf http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/pdf/report_e.pdf pg. x 141 Adapted from http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/ciarn_cwra.pdf 140 41 West Territories British Colombia Yukon        Artic Northwest Territories Nunavut      Prairies Alberta  Saskatchewan  Manitoba         Glacier cover is decreasing to its lowest levels in the past 10,000 years. Downstream flows were also declining. Basins are entering a long term continuous declining flow period. Increased water shortages downstream on the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains, of which there is already evidence in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Large changes have been recorded in the Fraser River, with average flows per decade falling to low levels in the 1940s, rising about 30% by the late 1960s and falling again through to the present day. Spring runoff in South-central British Columbia to occur 20 days earlier than usual; and late summer flows were already lower from 1985-94 than from 1975-84. Changes in the flow regimes and increased water temperature, may affect the current distribution of salmon in the Fraser River. Climate models project that, during the coming decades, water resources will become more abundant across much of northern Canada. Presence of snow and ice will decrease over time, being replaced by water in its liquid form. In communities across the Arctic, inhabitants are noting widespread changes in snow cover, ice cover duration, and permafrost stability. Melting permafrost, increased landslides and landslips Permafrost close to the surface plays a major role in supplying freshwater systems since it often maintains lakes and wetlands above an impermeable frozen water table. Decrease in permafrost will impact fresh water supplies. Summer river flows are expected to decrease due to reduced water supply from snowmelt and glacier runoff. Data indicates that a long-term trend of declining flows has already begun. Decreases in shallow groundwater resources could further compound water shortages. Flooding risk increase. Aquatic ecosystem habitats will be reduced in volume and area. Prairie Pothole wetlands are highly susceptible to a lack of moisture occurring through the effects of decreased snowpack and associated spring recharge, droughts and increased climatic variability- this area is one of the most important wetland regions in the world. Trends in duck abundance already reflect the interactions between changing wetness regimes and landscape alterations. Since 1999 prevailing drought conditions in the Prairie Provinces have been of concern. Farmers are already adapting by planting more droughtresistant crops, such as wheat, sunflower and lentils. Warmer, but more arid conditions over much of the present Prairie agricultural area, since increased evapotranspiration 42      Ontario Ontario           Quebec Quebec     will not be offset by the predicted increase in precipitation. This will require a shift in current cropping practices, particularly for spring seeded grains and oilseeds. A drier climate will result in greater demand for deeper groundwater sources and increased withdrawal. Poor water quality conditions in a river and consequent negative implications for aquatic life. Many of the surface water bodies (wetlands, closed-basin saline lakes and water-supply reservoirs) in the Prairies are already shallow, saline and eutrophic due to increases in evaporation and higher water temperatures. Lower stream flows reduce the capacity of streams to handle and transport pollutant loadings. Warmer air temperatures lead to an increase in water temperature, a reduction in the frequency of water column turnover, a reduction in dissolved oxygen, and changes in nutrient cycling. Fish and other aquatic organisms will be affected by these changes. Water supply issues to become a greater concern in the Great Lakes basin. A range of sectors would be affected by declining water levels. Water level changes and variation can be expected to threaten valued littoral and wetland habitat and impact both recreational and commercial fisheries as well as wildlife habitat. Shoreline properties, infrastructure (docks, wharves, pipe locations, breakwaters, etc.) and shipping channels will be affected. Temperature changes would alter lake structure and increase the probability of hypolimnetic anoxia. Valued cold-water species would encounter restricted habitat and food sources. Established bio-geochemical cycles, predator-prey relations and food-webs will be destabilized. Changed flow and runoff patterns will result in altered concentrations of major ions, nutrients, contaminants, suspended solids and dissolved organic carbon. Significant changes in the ice season on the Great Lakes over the past 35 years. The ice season is occurring increasingly earlier at a number of locations. T-Algal blooms and the growth and survival of certain opportunistic micro-organisms become more frequent in warmer water temperatures, leading to taste, odour and health problems in municipal water supply. The St. Lawrence River is by far the most significant component of Quebec’s water resources. Exposed to the longer-terms effects of climate change that occur within the Great Lakes region. Lower river flows will severely affect port and shipping transportation facilities. Commercial navigation, recreation boating and marinas, municipal water supply, hydroelectric generation, shoreline infrastructure, and aquatic habitat and ecosystem protection 43   Atlantic Canada New Brunswick Nova Scotia    Prince Edward Island  Newfoundland and Labador    are sensitive to water level and flow changes in the St’ Lawrence River. The ice season in 2001-2002 on the St-Lawrence was the shortest one experienced since record keeping begun in 1960 The open water contributed to lower lake and flow levels due to the higher than usual amounts of evaporation; consequently, water levels are lower then average. Sea level rise. Saltwater intrusion into rivers and coastal aquifers. Salt water intrusion could contaminate groundwater aquifers, which are the main source of regional water supplies. Disturbance to sensitive estuary ecosystems, and displace freshwater fish populations. Low-lying coastal lands are vulnerable to inundation under high tides and storm surges. The frequency of such flooding and the landward limits of flooding will increase with a rise in mean relative sea level. Related effects may therefore include groundwater intrusion, backwater flooding in coastal streams, and changes in saltmarsh zonation. Substantive reduction in freshwater flowing from the St. Lawrence River and a rising mean sea level may allow further upstream penetration of salt water from the Gulf of St. Increased flooding, intensity, and duration. Water: Existing Policies and Policy Gaps In order to help water managers adapt to some of the challenges posed by climate, the federal and provincial governments are already providing assistance in various forms. They have reacted proactively to the issue of climate change, and have recognized that in addition to mitigating greenhouse gases and reducing emissions, it is essential that Canadians understand the impacts of climate change better and how to adapt.142 Assistance varies from monetary aid for adaptation strategies, to providing access to expert-knowledge networks on adaptation. 143 In 2002, the Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: A Canadian Perspective report concluded that adapting to climate change in the water sector can be achieved in three ways, through: a) Water management and better resource management b) Structural adaptations, and c) Institutional Adaptations Outlined below are some of the key federal and provincial initiatives that facilitate adaptation to climate change in the water resources sector.144 Water management and better resource management can be achieved by water conservation measures, improved planning and preparedness for droughts and 142 http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/paper_wrr_mehdi.pdf http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/paper_wrr_mehdi.pdf 144 http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/paper_wrr_mehdi.pdf 143 44 severe floods, improved water quality protection from cultural, industrial and human wastes, enhanced monitoring efforts, and improved procedures for equitable allocation of water.145 The benefit of these measures is that they are so-called ‘no regret’ options that would benefit Canadians irrespective of climate change impacts, but are imperative to a climate change adaptation strategy under conditions of climate change. At the Federal level, the Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program (CCIAP), is working to reduce Canada's vulnerability to climate change in the water resource sector. The program supports the provision of information for adaptation decisionmaking to stakeholders such as water managers, water purveyors, hydrologists, and engineers. The program provides funding for research and activities to improve knowledge of Canada’s vulnerability in the water sector, to better assess the risks and benefits posed by climate change and to build the foundation on which appropriate decisions on adaptation can be made by water managers. To date, the program has funded various programs for water adaptation in Canada (see Table 9). Canada’s provinces and territories have primary jurisdiction over water management and protection. Broad provincial water management policies that address climate change issues are in place in British Columbia and Manitoba. A special focus has been put on the Okanagan Basin in British Columbia. Drought Action Plans and Water Conservation Plans exist for many provinces and territories, including British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Ontario and Quebec.146 Table 9: Examples of adaptation projects funded by CCIAP TITLE Climate Change Impacts on Low-Flow Characteristics of New Brunswick Rivers and Adaptation Strategies for In-stream Flow Needs Preliminary Evaluation of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Ground Water Resources in Eastern Canada Impacts & Adaptation of Drainage Systems, Design Methods & Policies Climate Change Impacts on Canadian Prairie Wetlands & Agricultural Adaptation Strategies Climate Change and Water Resource Management in the Okanagan Region LOCATION New Brunswick Atlantic Canada and Quebec Ontario Saskatchewan British Columbia Demand management involves reducing water demands through water conservation initiatives and improved water use efficiency.147 Demand management is considered to be an effective, and environmentally and economically sustainable, 145 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: A Canadian Perspective, pg. 42 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/index_e.php 146 Paragraph from: http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/4th_Report_on_CC_e.pdf 147 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/water_5_e.php 45 adaptation option.148 As a result, programs based on water conservation and full water costing are being increasingly used in the municipal sector.149 In the Grand River basin, for example, municipalities have begun to develop programs to make water use, storage and distribution more efficient.150 At the same time, however, many municipalities are unable to adopt demand management programs due to lack of funding or lack of capacity.151 Water infrastructure is perhaps the most vulnerable of all types of infrastructure to climate change, and the importance of water to human health, the economy and the environment also make it one of the most critical types of infrastructure. Furthermore, this type of infrastructure has the potential to suffer the greatest damages or losses associated with climate change unless proactive adaptation actions are taken.152 Physical infrastructures, such as dams, weirs and drainage canals, have traditionally served as important adaptations for the water sector in Canada.153 There are conflicting opinions, however, on the potential of building new structures for climate change adaptation.154 Given the substantive environmental, economic and social costs associated with these structures, many experts advocate avoiding or postponing the construction of large-scale infrastructure until there is greater certainty regarding the magnitude of expected hydrological changes.155 On the other side of the coin is the fact that water infrastructure improves the flexibility of management operations, and increases a system’s capacity to buffer the effects of hydrological variability.156 Most existing water management plans, as well as watersupply and drainage systems, are based upon historic climatic and hydrological records, and assume that the future will resemble the past.157 Instead, much of the literature on water infrastructure adaptation stresses the importance of implementing “noregrets” measures.158 A “noregrets” climate change adaptation provides benefits to the community whether anticipated climate changes materialize or not.”159 Examples of “no regrets” options for water supply and wastewater infrastructure include water conservation and demand management measures, education and awareness to change attitudes about climate change, longterm planning and preparedness for droughts and severe flooding, enhanced water quality protection, renewal of water monitoring efforts, and improved procedures for equitable allocation of water.160 Many cities and rural communities are already using “no regrets” adaptations such as watershed planning to respond to water 148 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/water_5_e.php http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/water_5_e.php 150 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/water_5_e.php 151 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/water_5_e.php 152 http://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/research-recherche/alt_formats/pdf/rs14_e.pdf pg. 8 153 http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/4th_Report_on_CC_e.pdf 154 http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/4th_Report_on_CC_e.pdf 155 http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/4th_Report_on_CC_e.pdf 156 http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/4th_Report_on_CC_e.pdf 157 http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/4th_Report_on_CC_e.pdf 158 http://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/research-recherche/alt_formats/pdf/rs14_e.pdf 159 http://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/research-recherche/alt_formats/pdf/rs14_e.pdf 160 http://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/research-recherche/alt_formats/pdf/rs14_e.pdf 149 46 stresses such as low water levels.161 For example, the Ontario Government’s Bill 43the Clean Water Act 2006.162 The Act requires municipalities, conservation authorities and other local stakeholders to develop source protection plans at the watershed scale.163 Source protection plans involve, among other things, the development of a water budget, which would include climate change considerations into these water management practices and infrastructure planning in Ontario. 164 In Stratford, Ontario, the municipality is spending $70 million to retrofit its infrastructure with a 250 year storm design.165 Although municipalities are beginning to implement some "no regrets" adaptations for water supply and wastewater infrastructure, more data needs to be collected, more research needs to be conducted, engineering designs need to change, climatic design values need regular updates, and actions need to take place to mainstream climate change adaptation in order to adapt our water infrastructure.166 The ability to adapt to climate variability and climate change is affected by a range of institutional factors. Beyond better water management and more appropriate physical infrastructure are legal or institutional barriers to implementing such adaptation strategies. For example, these include a lack of public awareness of the need for water conservation, the level and quality of communication and coordination between stakeholders and water managers, the level of public involvement in water management decision making, the quality and accessibility of resources (e.g. sufficient financial resources, adequately trained staff, access to high quality data), and socio-economic composition (i.e. more affluent communities can dedicate more money to adaptation). For example, Environment Canada, Industry Canada, Health Canada, and Natural Resources Canada, have collaborated with stakeholders through Pollution Probe to conduct workshops on water policy in Canada to ensure that sustainability goals are met. The outcome of these workshops have been a series of public education programs, stakeholder engagement, communication, and coordination activities, and increasing the level of public involvement in water decision making. Two examples are The Great Lakes and Saint Lawrence River Sustainability Primer which is an educational primer for citizens on water conservation and Enviroplace which uses web-based technology to provide citizens with tools and information they need to access and understand environmental, economic and health information. 161 http://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/research-recherche/alt_formats/pdf/rs14_e.pdf http://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/research-recherche/alt_formats/pdf/rs14_e.pdf 163 http://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/research-recherche/alt_formats/pdf/rs14_e.pdf 164 http://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/research-recherche/alt_formats/pdf/rs14_e.pdf 165 http://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/research-recherche/alt_formats/pdf/rs14_e.pdf 166 http://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/research-recherche/alt_formats/pdf/rs14_e.pdf 162 47 Chapter 2 The Security of Canadian Energy Resources 48 Overview Over the past decade, increasing energy costs, together with rising demand and tight production, has resulted in a new type of security, commonly referred to as “energy security.”167 The World Bank defines energy security as those activities which allow countries to produce and use energy sustainably at a reasonable cost in order to facilitate economic growth and improve the lives of people.168 Energy security depends on the type and availability of domestic energy supplies, the regional distribution of those energy supplies, and the energy efficiency rates of a country. To ensure energy security it is important that energy supplies are continuous, diversified, and that infrastructure reduces the dependence on imported supplies. A region is considered energy secure when local infrastructure allows energy supplies to be distributed so that the demand of all energy services is met. Canada has been called an ‘energy superpower’, implying that energy security is not an issue in Canada. Although this might seem to be a reasonable interpretation, based on the seeming abundance of natural resources found in Canada, such as coal, oil, natural gas, uranium, and hydroelectricity,169 energy security is an issue in Canada mainly due to resource decline, uneven distribution of energy, and uneven infrastructure distribution. In order to understand the state of energy security in Canada this section will address concerns regarding energy demand and supplies, availability of reserves at the domestic and international levels, distribution of reserves, energy efficiency, and threats to energy security. For a snapshot of energy in Canada see Appendix 5. Energy and environmental policy responsibilities within Canada are divided between federal and provincial governments.170 With the growing importance of energy issues, the federal government and provinces have responded with the release of energy strategies and policy directives, although these have largely been focused on GHG mitigation strategies.171 In early 2007, British Columbia released its Vision for Clean Energy Leadership, focusing on energy efficiency, electricity selfsufficiency, net zero emissions from thermal generation, renewable portfolio standards, and alternative fuels. Alberta’s Climate Change and Emissions Management Amendment Act and the Nine Point Bio-Energy Strategy focus on emission intensity reductions from large final emitters and expanding the bio energy industry. Ontario’s recent policy initiative released in April 2007 focuses on energy efficiency and electric sector changes. Several other policy directives have been announced previously, highlighting conservation, small-scale alternative energy projects, net metering, and infrastructure financing, all to promote efficiency 167 http://www.policyalternatives.ca/documents/Nova_Scotia_Pubs/2007/ccpa_ns_energy_security.pdf pg. 13 http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTRUSSIANFEDERATION/Resources/Energy_Security_eng.pdf 169 Adapted from http://www.policyalternatives.ca/documents/Nova_Scotia_Pubs/2007/ccpa_ns_energy_security.pdf 170 http://www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/nrgyrprt/nrgyftr/2007/nrgyftr2007-eng.pdf pg 7 171 http://www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/nrgyrprt/nrgyftr/2007/nrgyftr2007-eng.pdf pg 7 168 49 in the use of energy while reducing emissions. The key elements of Quebec’s energy strategy released in 2006 include accelerated development of hydroelectric resources and wind power, energy efficiency for all forms and uses, and innovation. Nova Scotia has also released several policy directives focusing on alternative energy sources, including tidal power and hybrid transit, energy efficiency, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions.172 Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Security As the climate of Canada warms, the consumption of energy in climate-sensitive sectors is likely to change. Possible effects include (1) decreases in the amount of energy consumed in residential, commercial, and industrial buildings for space heating and increases for space cooling; (2) decreases in energy used directly in certain processes such as residential, commercial, and industrial water heating, and increases in energy used for residential and commercial refrigeration and industrial process cooling (e.g., in thermal power plants or steel mills); (3) increases in energy used to supply other resources for climate-sensitive processes, such as pumping water for irrigated agriculture and municipal uses; (4) changes in the balance of energy use among delivery forms and fuel types, as between electricity used for air conditioning and natural gas used for heating; and (5) changes in energy consumption in key climate-sensitive sectors of the economy, such as transportation, construction, and agriculture.173 Current knowledge about the possible effects of climate change on energy production and use is not extensive. There has been a tendency to focus on the energy sector as a driving force of climate change, rather then analyzing the impacts of climate change on the energy sector. However, the energy sector – on both the energy use and energy supply sides – is vulnerable to stresses from climate change.174 Some of the expected effects of climate change have clear implications for energy production and use. Climate change could affect energy production and supply (a) if extreme weather events become more intense, (b) where regions dependent on water supplies for hydropower and/or thermal power plant cooling face reductions in water supplies, (c) where temperature increases decrease overall thermoelectric power generation efficiencies, and (d) where changed conditions affect facility location decisions. Most effects are likely to be modest except for possible regional effects of extreme weather events and water shortages. Changes in precipitation could affect prospects for hydropower, positively or negatively. Increases in storm intensity could threaten further disruptions to oil supplies from the US Gulf Coast, of the sorts experienced in 2005 with Hurricane Katrina. As well, increased storm 172 Paragraph from http://www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/nrgyrprt/nrgyftr/2007/nrgyftr2007-eng.pdf pg 7 From http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-5/final-report/sap4-5-final-all.pdf page 23 174 Adapted from: http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-5/final-report/sap4-5-final-all.pdf 173 50 surges and more frequent storms in the Atlantic region could impact oil rigs adversely. 175 Warm climates would also generally improve the efficiency of surface and marine transportation of oil and gas. However, climate change may also have significant effects on the production and transportation of energy. For instance, in southern Canada, an expected decrease in mean lake levels and river flows and increased frequency of severe droughts will likely decrease the potential for hydroelectricity generation. The reverse is likely in northern Canada, where water abundance is likely to increase. Such changes in energy distribution would require changes in infrastructure and energy transfer. There is also a risk that more intense winter storms could increase damage and disruption of electricity transmission grids. Milder winters would also benefit this sector through shorter ice seasons but also challenge it with the risk of more frequent mid-winter river ice jams. In northern and coastal regions, fossil fuel energy production and transportation activities will also need to deal with the effects of decaying permafrost on pipelines and roads, and of increased iceberg hazards along Canada’s east coast.176 Climate change is likely to affect risk management in the investment behavior of some energy institutions, and it is very likely to have some effects on energy technology R&D investments and energy resource and technology choices. Concerns about climate change impacts could change perceptions and valuations of energy technology alternatives. As climate change affects other countries from which Canada imports energy, that in turn will affect Canadian energy conditions through their participation in global and hemispheric energy markets.177 As far as energy production is concerned, the most dramatic impacts of climate change are likely to be on hydroelectric production in the Great-Lakes basin due to decreasing water levels – there is a lack on consensus about other watersheds - and on offshore fossil fuels production. The loss of hydro potential in Ontario will require building more thermal stations. Water for cooling nuclear stations may be lacking. On the other hand, the hydro-generation potential will increase in the James Bay region.178 In the lower reaches of the St. John River in New-Brunswick, generating facilities may have to be moved because of the risk of flooding. Any decrease in hydroelectric capacity will result in a decrease in Canada’s ability to meet its export commitments. Under the terms of NAFTA, member states must honor export contracts on the same footing as domestic contracts. For example, should Hydro Quebec contract to sell 15% of its production to Niagara-Mohawk in New York, it must maintain that percentage regardless of its total volume of output. Even if overall domestic production falls, Hydro Quebec cannot reallocate its production to meet domestic demand at the expense of its export contracts. Thus, 175 Adapted from: http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-5/final-report/sap4-5-final-all.pdf Adapted from http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 42 177 Adapted from: http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-5/final-report/sap4-5-final-all.pdf 178 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-119-7-1998E.pdf pg. 116 176 51 climate change-induced shortages or overages in hydro production would affect exports as well as domestic consumption. Modeling these changes, however, is nearly impossible, please see Appendix 6 for more information.179 Offshore fossil fuels production may benefit from the elimination of sea ice and icebergs (iceberg calfing notwithstanding); resulting increased height of waves may increase shore erosion and, thereby, affect long-lived coastal and offshore structures. Thawing permafrost may affect pipelines in the North.180 The production of oil from oil sands in Western Canada involves the extraction of bitumen which requires a significant volume of water. Research has suggested that the climate is changing towards drier, warmer conditions, which could further limit the freshwater supply from the Athabasca River for use by oil sands. 181 As such, the availability of water resources for the extraction of oil may decrease, increasing the costs of production. Natural gas availability is expected to change under conditions of climate change indirectly as consumer preferences change towards lower carbon emitting energy sources. The Kyoto Protocol, along with fact that natural gas prices are set in an increasingly integrated North American market, means that Canadian producers will have to bear any costs they incur in order to comply with emission constraints. In the continental marketplace, Canada’s natural gas basins such as the Western Sedimentary Basin in Alberta and the Scotian Shelf in the Maritimes compete directly with natural gas sources in the U.S., and may eventually compete with those in Mexico.182 Similarly, the market for coal is being affected by growing concerns over greenhouse gas emissions. Climate warming will mean reductions in total Canadian heating requirements and increases in total cooling requirements for buildings. These changes in consumption will vary by region and by season, but they will affect household and business energy costs and their demands on energy supply institutions. For example, energy consumption for space heating and cooling in our homes, offices and factories change with outside temperatures. Within the next 50 years or so, the projected warming of Canada’s climate could reduce winter heating costs in Canada by some 20-30%. These savings will be partially offset by increased summer cooling costs in southern Canada.183 Electricity demand for heating will be reduced considerably in Ontario and Quebec while demand for cooling may increase slightly during the summer.184 It is expected that in Alberta, electricity production and consumption will not be affected by climate. Natural gas demand for heating in Alberta will be reduced and the peak demand would be flattened. As well, if settlements patterns 179 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-119-7-1998E.pdf pg. 116 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-119-7-1998E.pdf pg. 116 181 http://ess.nrcan.gc.ca/ercc-rrcc/theme1/t7_e.php 182 http://www.heartlandgas.ca/position_climatechange_march2002.pdf 183 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-205-2005-1E.pdf pg. 42 184 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-119-7-1998E.pdf pg. 116 180 52 change considerably by shifting northward - an unlikely event, energy consumption patterns may change considerably as well.185 On the other hand, increased demand for water for irrigation will result in increased electricity consumption for pumping. In the Prairies where conditions of drought are expected, energy demand for irrigation could increase the costs of agriculture production.186 It is expected that as heating demands lower in Canada, more energy resources will be available for export. Since Canada’s biggest export market for energy is the United States, depending on the state of their domestic supply, this could represent an opportunity for increased revenue, although it is impossible to identify exactly how much.187 For a summary of the regional effects of climate change on energy see table 10. Region West189 Artic 190 Prairies191 Table 10: Regional Impacts of Climate Change on Energy188 Provinces and Impacts Territories British Colombia  Glacier reduction and disappearance could adversely affect hydroelectric generation.  Drier summers and falls may reduce hydroelectric generation Yukon in southeast B.C. Northwest Territories  Melting of the ice caps could open opportunities for seabed oil exploration in the North.  Permafrost degradation could negatively impact overland Nunavut pipelines. Alberta  Electricity has the potential to be severely impacted by climate change. Thermal power stations become less efficient as reservoir water temperatures increase. Saskatchewan  Hydroelectric production will have to compete with a number of other uses, primarily agricultural, for the diminishing water Manitoba supply.  Increased demand for water pumping and summer cooling, and a decreased winter demand could push electrical utilities into a summer peak load position.  Possible reduced hydropower production caused by decreasing water flow could result in increasing thermal power production with an increase in fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.  Competing uses of water due to drought could impact oil sand productivity. 185 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-119-7-1998E.pdf pg. 116 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-119-7-1998E.pdf pg. 116 187 http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/En56-119-7-1998E.pdf pg. 99 188 Adapted from http://www.c-ciarn.ca/pdf/ciarn_cwra.pdf 189 Source: http://www.acee-ceaa.gc.ca/015/001/004/appendixA_e.htm#Anchor-26786 190 Source: http://www.acee-ceaa.gc.ca/015/001/004/appendixA_e.htm#Anchor-26786 191 http://www.acee-ceaa.gc.ca/015/001/004/appendixA_e.htm#Anchor-26786 186 53 Ontario192 Ontario      Quebec Quebec   Atlantic Canada193 New Brunswick  Nova Scotia  Prince Edward Island Daily and year-to-year fluctuations in energy demand are driven largely by temperature. Heat stress in summer could lead to increased demand for energy for the purposes of air conditioning Warmer winters in the south would reduce the demands for heating. Variability in temperature and precipitation causes variations in lake levels and river flows, which affect hydroelectric power generation. Thunderstorms, freezing rain, high winds, freeze-thaw cycles and frozen ground affect the infrastructure of the energy distribution system. Wind patterns and cloud cover play a significant role in determining the feasibility of wind and solar energy. Changes in the hydrologic cycle may result in more variability in water supply for hydroelectric power production. Energy demand is expected to increase in the summer and decrease in the winter. Changes in the number of ice free days would affect marine transportation and the offshore oil and gas industry. Changes in precipitation and run-off affect generation of hydroelectric power temperature changes alter energy demand. Newfoundland and Labrador Energy: Existing Policies and Policy Gaps A review of a wide range of literature on climate change adaptation in the Energy sector suggest that there are four main ways that Canada can adapt to the impacts of climate change on energy resources. These are: 1) 2) 3) 4) Making infrastructure more secure Better management of resources necessary for energy production (i.e. water) Making sectors more resilient to energy supply fluctuations and Diversification of energy sources and conservation One major issues presented to policy makers is how to adapt energy infrastructure to more extreme weather conditions. Presently, there is no national strategy to address major energy infrastructure related crises such as brown outs and black outs. In 2006, Infrastructure Canada released a report entitled Adapting Infrastructure to Climate Change in Canada’s Cities and Communities. Although the report made inroads in describing challenges to certain types of infrastructure such as water supply, waste water and transportation, it acknowledged that research into adaptation measures for energy infrastructure have yet to materialize. 192 193 http://www.on.ec.gc.ca/canada-country-study/intro.html http://www.acee-ceaa.gc.ca/015/001/004/appendixA_e.htm#Anchor-26786 54 Better management of inputs for energy production is an important adaptation strategy because climate change is expected to impact the availability of these resources. For example, in the energy sector, water is used for cooling, extraction and other processes specific to the energy source. Water-efficient technology and innovation will be essential to the energy sector as climate change impacts water supply. For example, air cooling can be used as an alternative to water cooling in thermal power generation. Likewise, for the oil sands technologies are needed which reduce the amount of water necessary to extract bitumen. Currently, this process is highly water intensive in which on average 2-2.5 barrels of water are needed to produce 1 barrel of oil.194 Water will be the limiting factor for this industry unless more efficient methods are found and implemented.195 Waterefficient technology and innovation will continue to be essential in the energy sector, especially as an adaptation to climate change as the availability of water resources are affected. Natural Resources Canada has developed the CANMET energy technology center (CETC) which is Canada’s leading Federal Government Science and Technology organization with a mandate to develop and demonstrate energy efficient, alternative and renewable energy technologies and processes.196 For example, at CETC-Devon, a research facility in Alberta, is investigating new technologies related to the reclamation of tailings ponds that are produced during tar sand extraction in the hopes of reducing water resource impacts of tar sand extraction.197 As well, Natural Resources Canada has also developed a research program called Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Key Economic and Natural Environment Sectors. This program focuses on researching the risks of water supply fluctuations to tar sands production and hydropower generation. Making sectors more resilient to energy supply fluctuations is one way to reduce the impacts of climate change on the availability of energy. However, there is no indication that the government at the Federal level is considering this alternative to adaptation. For example, the most recent supply and demand scenarios for 2030, released in the National Energy Board’s study ‘Canada’s Energy Future’, where climate change is mentioned, focus exclusively on the impacts of GHG mitigation policies as opposed to adaptation strategies.198 Diversification of energy sources is a strategy that provides different sources of energy production that are not reliant on the same inputs whose infrastructure and production processes may be less vulnerable to climate change impacts and can also contribute to GHG reduction. These sources include wind power, solar power, and geothermal power. The ecoACTION Program of Canada, is a technology market based approach by the Government of Canada to provide incentive to Canadian business and public to diversify energy production and to improve energy efficiency. 194 Energy Water Nexus pg. 11: http://www.policyresearch.gc.ca/doclib/SR_ENG_Science-Nexus_200803_e.pdf Ibid. 196 www.nrcan-rncan.gc.ca/com/excellence/activities-eng.php 197 www.nrcan-rncan.gc.ca/com/excellence/activities-eng.php 198 http://www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/nrgyrprt/nrgyftr/2007/nrgyftr2007-eng.pdf 195 55 The Wind Power Production Incentive (WPPI) was introduced by the Federal government in 2002, providing an incentive payment of 1 cent per kilo-watt hour (kWh) for the first 10 years of operation of eligible wind-power projects.199 In April 2007, the program was expanded and renamed ecoENERGY for Renewable Power which invests $1.48 billion to increase Canada’s supply of clean electricity from renewable sources such as wind, biomass, low impact hydro, geothermal, solar photovoltaic, and ocean energy.200 The main purpose of conservation is to reduce energy demands on the energy grid, particularly in light of the impacts of climate change on the supply of energy and on peak-demand. The Office of Energy Efficiency (OEE) housed in the Ministry of Natural Resources, is a centre for energy conservation, energy efficiency and alternative fuels information.201 It plays a dynamic leadership role in helping Canadians save millions of dollars in energy costs while contributing to a healthier environment. 202 One of the OEE's key tasks is managing the Government of Canada's new ecoENERGY Efficiency Initiative, with its programs to reduce energy use in buildings and houses, industry, retrofits, personal vehicles and fleets.203 For example, through the ecoENERGY program the government is providing a grant to Canadians to retro-fit their homes to make them more energy efficient.204 The same grants are also being offered to small and mediumsized businesses to make their operations more energy efficient. The OEE provides practical energy conservation advice to consumers, school boards, businesses and institutions.205 199 “Climate Change and Canadian Energy Policy: Policy Contradiction and Policy Failure” Mark S Winfield Behind the Headlines; Jan 2008; 65, 1, pg. 5 200 www.ecoaction.gc.ca 201 http://www.oee.nrcan.gc.ca/corporate/about-us.cfm?attr=0 202 http://www.oee.nrcan.gc.ca/corporate/about-us.cfm?attr=0 203 http://www.oee.nrcan.gc.ca/corporate/about-us.cfm?attr=0 204 www.ecoaction.gc.ca 205 http://www.oee.nrca.gc.ca/corporate/about-us.cfm?attr=0 56 Chapter 3 Security of Canadian Arctic Sovereignty and Resources 57 Overview Global climate change is being felt first and foremost in the Arctic, and the peoples and communities there are already witnessing and experiencing the effects of these changes.206 Climate change is expected to impact Arctic sovereignty, resource security, and Canada’s Northern people as temperature, precipitation, and resource bases change. Below the expected climate change impacts on Canada’s Arctic and adaptation policy options are discussed (see Appendix 3 for a summary of these issues.). Resilience (both social and ecological) is a crucial aspect of the sustainability of local livelihoods and resource utilization, thus there is a need for greater understanding of how societies build adaptive capacity in the face of climate change. However, there is also a need to be attentive to the reality that communities differ in the ways they perceive risk, in the ways they utilize strategies for mitigating negative change, and in the effectiveness of local adaptive capacity. Policy responses need to be informed by a greater understanding of how potential impacts of climate change are distributed across different regions and populations. Policy responses should also recognize climate change impacts within the broader context of rapid social and economic change and, in their implementation, should underscore the reality that climate change is but one of several problems affecting people and their livelihoods in the Arctic today.207 The Arctic region has been featured in debates about Canadian sovereignty. There has been a renewed focus on the Arctic due to the effects of climate change in the region, notably the melting of the polar ice caps. At the same time, there are continuing strategic issues relating to potential incursions into Canadian Arctic territory at various levels – airspace, surface (terrestrial and maritime), and subsurface (by nuclear submarines). Canada’s ability to detect and monitor such territorial incursions and to enforce sovereign claims over its Arctic territory in such cases has been questioned.208 Other countries, including the United States, Russia, Denmark, Japan, and Norway, as well as the European Union, have expressed increasing interest in the region and differing claims in relation to international law. In particular, many observers believe that the Northwest Passage, the shipping route through Canada’s Arctic waters, will be open to increased shipping activity in the coming decades as the ice melts. Canada’s assertion that the Northwest Passage represents internal (territorial) waters has been challenged by other countries, including the United States, which argue that these waters constitute an international strait 206 Paragraph directly from http://www.uarctic.org/Adaptation_to_Climate_Change_in_the_Arctic_FINAL_web_rV6mb.pdf.file 207 http://www.uarctic.org/Adaptation_to_Climate_Change_in_the_Arctic_FINAL_web_rV6mb.pdf.file 208 Paragraph directly from http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/library/PRBpubs/prb0561-e.htm 58 (international waters). Interest in the region’s economic potential has resulted in discussions of increased resource exploration and disputed sub-surface resources, as well as concerns over environmental degradation, control and regulation of shipping activities, and protection of northern inhabitants. It is important to note that the Arctic is a vast and remote territory that presents many difficulties in terms of surveillance, regulation, and infrastructure development. 209 The definition of sovereignty is not necessarily agreed upon by all parties who have interest in the region which has led to different policies and approaches as to how sovereignty can be asserted. There are three main approaches: 210 1) A state’s right to jurisdictional control, territorial integrity, and noninterference by outside states. Sovereignty is supreme legitimate authority within a territory. … Supreme authority within a territory implies both undisputed supremacy over the land’s inhabitants and independence from unwanted intervention by an outside authority.” 2) A state’s exercise of control and authority over its territory, and the perception of this control and authority by other states. Sovereignty is thus linked to the maintenance of international security. There is an increasing expectation of state responsibility in ensuring territorial control and in providing the presence of state authority. 3) Assertion of sovereignty by way of stewardship, an issue that has been raised by Canada’s northern Inuit and Aboriginal peoples. Specifically, “use and occupancy” by Canada’s northern inhabitants is significant in terms of the validity of Canada’s sovereignty claims. Each of these definitions has real world implications in terms of how climate change challenges Canadian Arctic sovereignty, and the wide range of policies that have been deployed to meet these challenges. Impacts of Climate Change on Canada’s Arctic The high natural climate variability of the Arctic, together with the relatively sparse observational data sets, make it difficult to distinguish with confidence a climate change signal in the trends observed in the instrumental period of record. During more recent periods, all regions show warming. Trends were strongest in winter and spring. Annual and winter temperature anomalies and annual precipitation departures over four northern regions from 1948 to 2005 how greatest warming in the Yukon and Mackenzie District (2.2°C and 2.0°C, respectively). Annual precipitation totals (1948–2005) increased throughout all of northern Canada, with 209 210 Paragraph directly from http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/library/PRBpubs/prb0561-e.htm Paragraph directly from http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/library/PRBpubs/prb0561-e.htm 59 the largest increases over the more northerly Arctic Tundra (+25%) and Arctic Mountain (+16%) regions.211 The climate of the North during the last 10 000 years has been characterized by relative warmth and remarkable stability. In the last 2000 years, climate has been characterized by multi-centennial oscillations ranging from mild conditions (similar to the modern era) to widespread persistence of relatively cool conditions. Climate of the last 400 years has been characterized by warming and related changes over most of the Arctic, including retreat of glaciers, reduction in sea-ice extent, permafrost melting, and alteration of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. During the past approximately 150 years, however, it is evident that the rate and nature of change are unprecedented since the abrupt warming at the onset of the current interglacial period more than 10 000 years ago. This rapid acceleration in temperature increase over the Arctic is projected to continue throughout the twenty-first century.212 For the 2020s, both western and eastern regions exhibit mean annual temperature changes concentrated near +2.0 °C and precipitation increases ranging from 5 to 8%. Intermodel variability is greatest during the 2080s: median temperature changes for the western region are near +6.0 °C but range from +3.5°C (NCAR-PCM B2 scenario) to +12.5°C (CCSRNIES A1FI scenario); most scenarios project a 15 to 30% increase in annual precipitation. 213 The greatest temperature changes are projected to occur during winter.214 Spatial characteristics of annual and seasonal projected temperature changes over northern Canada indicate that the greatest temperature changes will occur at higher latitudes, particularly in the extreme northwest. Seasonally, the greatest temperature changes over the entire region are projected to occur during winter and fall. Annual and seasonal precipitation changes show considerable spatial variability in the Canadian Arctic, with the greatest annual percentage increases projected over more northerly regions.215 Many components of the Arctic environment are sensitive to changes in climate including, sea ice, seasonal snow cover, glaciers and ice caps, permafrost, and river and lake ice. Terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems will be impacted by changes in the cryosphere.216 The annual averaged area of sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by 7.4% (3% per decade) between 1978 and 2003. The annual maximum ice area has shrunk less rapidly, at about 2% per decade, whereas the annual minimum has 211 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 213 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 214 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 215 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 216 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 212 60 declined more rapidly, at about 5.6% per decade. In the 21st century, there are projections for decreases in sea-ice extent during the twenty-first century. Projections from the CGCM2 model indicate an ice-free Arctic during September by the mid –twenty-first century, whereas other models project ice-free summers in the Arctic by 2100.217 In the Arctic regions, snow can account for up to 80% of annual precipitation. Snow insulates the ground, affecting the ground thermal regime and permafrost distribution. Snow also influences surface radiation balances and water budgets, and affects the habitat of terrestrial and aquatic biota (e.g. Adams, 1981). From 1972 to 2003, average annual snow-cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere decreased by about 10%. The largest decreases occurred during spring and summer, which correlated with a large spring warming over northern land areas. Projected increases in temperature will decrease the length of time available for accumulation of a winter snowpack, thereby affecting the magnitude of the spring snowmelt, the major hydrological event of the year in most northern systems.218 Canada has major glaciers and ice caps in the high Arctic and Yukon. In general, glaciers and ice caps across the Arctic show a retreat in glacier fronts and volume decreases since about 1920. Over the long term, the Greenland Ice Sheet is projected to make the largest contribution to future sea-level changes, but meltwater from glaciers in Alaska-Yukon are also projected to make a significant addition.219 Active layer and permafrost thermal-monitoring activities during the last two to three decades indicate that recent warming of permafrost has occurred in many regions of the Canadian permafrost zone and that summer thaw penetration has increased in the 1990s Degradation of continuous permafrost to discontinuous permafrost, and disappearance of discontinuous permafrost, is projected to occur at the southern boundaries of these permafrost zones. Thawing of permafrost has the potential to release large pools of carbon, which can act as feedback to the climate system. Thaw sensitivity and settlement of permafrost have important implications for landscape stability and the performance of any overlying infrastructure. Frozen ground plays an important role in northern hydrology through its influence on infiltration, runoff and groundwater storage and flow. The implications of climate-induced changes in permafrost for northern hydrology are increased infiltration, greater groundwater storage, lower spring runoff, increase in base flow, changes in water quality, changes in drainage and the distribution of surface water. Thawing of ice-rich permafrost may also lead to loss of fish and wildlife habitat.220 217 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 219 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 220 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 218 61 From 1846 to 1995, freeze-up and break-up trends for lakes and rivers in the Northern Hemisphere, including a long-term site on the Mackenzie River, show an average delay of 5.8 days per century in freeze-up dates and an average advance of 6.3 days per century in break-up dates. Although changes are difficult to predict, future warming will likely lead to a shortened ice season and thinner lake- and river-ice covers, and cover composition.221 Parts of the Arctic, may be subject to rapid increases in the sea level. Sea-level rise increases the risk of flooding and erosion on Arctic coasts and may exacerbate other coastal hazards, such as ice ride-up and pile-up. In the western Arctic, sea-level rise and coastal erosion threaten cultural heritage sites (e.g. former habitations and burial sites) on the Yukon coast (e.g. Herschel Island), seasonal settlements (e.g. Shingle Point, YT) and coastal communities (e.g. Tuktoyaktuk, NT; e.g. Colette, 2007). Coastal erosion is a concern at other communities in the western Arctic, including Sachs Harbour and, to a lesser extent, Ulukhaktok, NT, while high water levels have been noted as an issue in Cambridge Bay, NU. In the eastern Arctic, highwater and erosion concerns have been noted at Hall Beach, Iqaluit, Pond Inlet and Arctic Bay, NU, prompting discussions about adaptation options. The most severe flooding risks in low-lying communities, such as Tuktoyaktuk, are associated with large storm surges, which may reach more than 2 m above MSL.222 The extreme temperature gradients of the Arctic mean that plant communities will likely show a quick and strong response to temperature change. Vegetation-model projections for the present century indicate that, depending on location, the boreal forest will displace between 11 and 50% of all Arctic tundra. However, recent observations of the latitudinal treeline show a southward displacement, suggesting that a northward displacement, projected on the basis of changing climatic conditions alone, is unlikely. Increased disturbances, such as pest outbreaks and fire, will locally affect the direction of treeline response. 223 Climate change will affect the structure and function of Arctic freshwater ecosystems. Community and ecosystem attributes, including species richness, biodiversity, range and distribution, will be affected and will consequently affect food-web structures and production levels. Although large uncertainties remain in projecting species- and system-specific responses, it is likely that locally adapted Arctic species will disappear from certain areas when environmental conditions begin to exceed their physiological tolerances and/or ecological optima.224 Changing climate will affect the capacity and operations of current and future hydroelectric developments, as well as affecting the demand for electricity. Projected increases in winter runoff from rainfall and enhanced winter snowmelt will lead to a decline in winter snow storage. Reservoir capacities on current and 221 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 223 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 224 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 222 62 future developments may need to be expanded to offset this loss in natural storage.225 Exploration activities of oil and gas are likely to be affected by climate change in the Arctic. In 2006, there were active and potential exploration activities in the Eagle Plains area of the Yukon and in the Cameron Hills, Fort Liard and Mackenzie Delta areas of the Northwest Territories. Some of the largest future potential reserves exist within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and projected decreases in sea-ice cover may result in this area becoming a focus of additional exploration activity. 226 Thawing of permafrost and changes in snow cover will necessitate an increased focus on low-impact vehicles and/or changes in seasonal scheduling of exploration activities. The unpredictability of the winter season and the winter ice-road system will necessitate greater flexibility in scheduling of exploration and extraction activities. The greatest impact of changing climate on exploration, however, may relate to the use of in-ground sumps for drilling wastes. Disposal in sumps relies on the presence of permafrost to prevent subsurface movement of drilling wastes into the surrounding environment. Increased ground temperatures resulting from increases in air temperature and/or snow depth will increase the likelihood of contaminant transport. 227 Offshore exploration drilling, such as that recently conducted by Devon Canada Corporation in the Beaufort Sea, will be affected by decreasing sea-ice cover. Future development may require design changes to drilling platforms to counter the effects of increased wave action and storm surges. One possible adaptation would be to increase the use of exploration drill ships. 228 Oil and gas are delivered to markets through pipelines that are designed according to environmental conditions, many of which are influenced by climate. A number of geotechnical –climate change issues need to be addressed when constructing pipelines in permafrost zones, such as changes in the ground thermal regime, drainage and terrain stability, all of which may result from a warming climate over the lifetime of such a project.229 There are currently three major mines operating in the northern territories: two diamond mines in the Northwest Territories and one diamond mine in Nunavut. Declines in sea-ice cover, due to climate change, is likely to stimulate further mine exploration and development. The principal mineral deposits include diamonds, gold, tungsten, silver, lead, iron, copper, zinc, nickel, coal, tantalum, niobium, lithium, cobalt, bismuth, uranium, beryllium and barium. Resupply of existing mines is generally limited to winter periods and the availability of ice roads, whereas 225 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 227 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 228 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 229 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 226 63 exploration activities are usually restricted to short summer periods. Of particular concern for mine access is the expected reduction in the availability of ice roads, which may necessitate development of all-season roads and/or water-based transportation systems.230 The most obvious impact of changing climate on Arctic marine transportation will be an increase in the length of the summer shipping season, with sea-ice duration expected to be 10 days shorter by 2020 and 20 –30 days shorter by 2080, although there is no expectation of an ice-free Arctic in winter. Even though a longer shipping season appears beneficial, ice conditions in all areas of the Canadian Arctic are highly variable from year to year and will likely remain that way. Hence, there will continue to be summers with ice conditions either more benign or far worse in the future.231 Hudson Bay and the Beaufort Sea, are both likely to see increased numbers of transits by large ships. A longer summer shipping season will likely encourage shipping through the port of Churchill on Hudson Bay; in the Beaufort Sea, it will increase the appeal of offshore hydrocarbon development and of shipping oil and gas in large ships westward and through Bering Strait. Increased wind fetch will increase risks from waves and surges to barge traffic, coastal infrastructure and small-boat use by northern residents. Climate change is also expected to change the nature of the risks to shipping traffic in many areas of the Arctic. Rather than being confronted with extensive ice pack that necessitates icebreaker escort, ships in the future will see easier navigating conditions in general, punctuated by frequent occurrences of ice pressure in congested straits, multi-year ice in low concentrations that is difficult to detect, and extreme variability of conditions from one year to the next. As such, there will be a need for continued, if not increased, icebreaking support for increased and more broadly dispersed shipping activities. 232 Significant areas of the Yukon (22.79 million ha) and the Northwest Territories (33.35 million ha) are covered by boreal forest, together constituting about 13% of Canada's total forest cover. The cultural, spiritual, social and economic well-being of many First Nations is dependent on a healthy forest ecosystem. Gathering of food and the exercise of cultural practices are important uses of forest land in the Yukon and Northwest Territories. Less than 30% of the Yukon forest cover is of a species or size that might support timber-harvesting activities (Government of Yukon, 2006), with the majority of merchantable forests located south of latitude 61 °N. Farther north, Yukon forests are more affected by cold soils, poor drainage and aggressive fire regimes.233 The mounting evidence of local ecological responses to recent climate change demonstrates the sensitivity of northern forested ecosystems to climate change. 230 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 232 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 233 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 231 64 Many of the projected impacts of changing climate on the northern forest sector are already visible. Increased forest disturbances due to insect outbreaks are almost certain to result from continued climate warming. The spruce bark beetle infestation of southwestern Yukon, which has led to widespread mortality of white spruce, is the largest and most intense outbreak to affect Canadian trees and is a notable example of ecosystem response to recent warming. Climate change is also projected to increase the frequency, extent and severity of forest fires, thereby reducing mean fire return intervals, shifting age class distributions toward younger forests, triggering more frequent shifts from conifer- to deciduous-dominated successional trajectories, and decreasing the amount of terrestrial carbon stored in the boreal forest. 234 See table 11 for the effects of climate change on Canada’s Northern Forest sector. 235 TABLE 11: Examples of the impacts of climate change on the northern forest sector (modified from Lemmen and Warren, 2004). Biophysical impact Socioeconomic impacts Changes in forest Changes in timber supply and rent value productivity Increased atmospheric Introduction of carbon credit-permit mitigation policies greenhouse gases that create a carbon sequestration market Increased disturbances Loss of forest stock and non-market goods Northward shift of Change in land values and land-use options ecozones Change in climate and Economic restructuring leading to social and individual ecosystems stresses Ecosystem and specialist Changes in non-market values species changes Dislocation of parks and natural areas, increased landEcosystem changes use conflicts The northern fish fauna of Canada consist of an estimated 240 species. The number of species present in the region is likely to rise as climate changes, especially along the southern margin of the North. Several southern species are known to occur as vagrants in the North, including three species of Pacific salmon in the western Arctic and Atlantic salmon in the east. Colonization could result in new opportunities for fisheries, but could also add to existing stressors as ecosystems restructure, new predators appear, competition ensues and/or parasites are introduced by the 234 235 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 65 colonizing species. Experience with the vagrants in local fisheries enhances interest in future potential for fisheries based upon those species.236 Arctic species will likely experience declining productivity, local extirpation along the southern margin of their distribution and overall range contraction as local conditions exceed thresholds and southern species colonize and compete with or prey upon them. Both northern cold-water and southern cool-water species will likely increase in abundance and local productivity, and perhaps also extend their geographic range farther northward as conditions allow.237 Inshore coastal marine and lake-based commercial fisheries and aquaculture operations are likely to face significant adaptation challenges as a result of changing climate. In addition to fairly intensive capitalization of the fishing fleet, these fisheries are supported by harbour facilities and onshore fish-processing facilities that require significant capital expenditures and regular inspection and maintenance to maintain standards for processing commercial fish products. In the North, long-term, relatively stable production is required to recoup initial investments. Current views of such activities in the North being a major contributor to economic development in the future (e.g. Government of Nunavut and Nunavut Tuungavik Incorporated, 2005) may have to be adjusted in view of the consequences of changing climate.238 Arctic: Existing Policies and Policy Gaps Climate Change and Jurisdictional Sovereignty of the Canadian Arctic The Northwest Passage represents a potentially attractive and valuable commercial shipping route if it were to become more accessible to navigation and for longer portions of the year. The melting of the polar ice caps may open the Northwest Passage to increased shipping activity. There are varying estimates of the rate at which the Arctic ice is melting, but a 2004 study assessed that sea-ice in summer months has declined by 15-20% over the past thirty years.239 The impacts of climate change heighten the existing dispute over the status of the Northwest Passage. Canada claims that the Arctic waters of the Northwest Passage constitute “historic internal waters,” and thus fall under Canadian jurisdiction and control. However, this claim has been disputed, especially by the United States and the European Union. The United States has consistently argued that the Northwest Passage represents an international strait (international waters), which allows the right of transit passage (beyond “innocent passage”).240 The requirements of an international strait are both “geographic” and “functional.” An international strait must connect two bodies of the high seas, in this 236 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 238 http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch3/2_e.php 239 Paragraph directly from http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/library/PRBpubs/prb0561-e.htm#footnote5 240 Paragraph directly http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/library/PRBpubs/prb0561-e.htm 237 66 case the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. However, an international strait must also satisfy the criterion of being a useful (not just potentially useful) route for navigation, and must have experienced a sufficient number of transits. Considering the International Court of Justice’s ruling in the Corfu Channel Case, this criterion fails to be met in the case of the Northwest Passage, as there has not yet been a sufficient number of transits to qualify it as a “useful route for international maritime traffic.” However, if a sufficient number of vessels transit the passage without seeking Canadian permission, Canada’s claims to the legal status of the passage could be challenged, as there would be an increasing claim and perception that the passage constitutes an international strait. This international status would limit Canada’s ability to control these waters, especially in terms of rules governing environmental issues and shipping practices, which would potentially be governed by the International Maritime Organization. Most agree that ensuring control requires a Government of Canada presence in the region, to monitor the passage and ensure compliance with Canadian sovereign claims. 241 The Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System (AIRSS) has been developed to enhance the safety and efficiency of shipping operations in the Canadian arctic. AIRSS is currently being operated in parallel with the existing system of zone/date controls. Whereas the existing system imposes rigid control based on historical ice patterns, AIRSS provides a more flexible framework for decision-making, making full use of available information on ice conditions which will be important as climate change impacts ice cover.242 Policy initiatives directed towards the assertion of Canada’s sovereignty over its Arctic territory have tended to ebb and flow. The 1987 White Paper on Defence announced plans to purchase 10-12 nuclear-powered submarines and “polar class 8” icebreakers that would be capable of operating in Arctic waters year-round. These costly programs were subsequently cut with the end of the Cold War. The Canadian Coast Guard operates a fleet of five icebreakers that guide foreign vessels through Canada’s Arctic waters and assist in harbour breakouts, routing, and northern resupply. These icebreakers are often “the only federal resource positioned in a particular area of the Arctic,” and they must also serve in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Atlantic. Some commentators have suggested that Canada requires more “heavy” or “all-season” icebreaker capabilities in order to properly monitor and patrol the area. The Canadian Navy does not currently have the capacity to operate within the Arctic ice. The Canadian Forces Northern Area (CFNA) is headquartered in Yellowknife. CFNA headquarters comprises 65 Regular Force, Reserve, and civilian personnel. CFNA military activities per year include two “Sovereignty Operations (Army),” two “Northern Patrols” (flights of Aurora patrol aircraft), 10-30 “Sovereignty Patrols” (CFNA), and one “Enhanced Sovereignty Patrol.” As part of the Canadian Forces Transformation, CFNA will assume a greater command and control function. CFNA is the “Northern” regional headquarters of 241 242 Paragraph directly from http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/library/PRBpubs/prb0561-e.htm http://www.tc.gc.ca/MarineSafety/tp/TP12259/section2-6.htm 67 the new Canada Command. Within the CFNA, the Canadian Ranger Patrol Group provides a military presence in northern and remote areas by conducting patrols, monitoring Canada’s northern territory, and collecting information. These part-time reservists comprise a significant element of Canada’s northern presence. As part of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), Canada maintains a chain of unmanned radar sites, the North Warning System (NWS). The NWS provides limited aerospace surveillance of Canadian and United States Arctic territory. In addition, Canada’s Department of National Defence recently announced the creation of Project Polar Epsilon, which “will provide all-weather, day/night [surface] observation of Canada’s Arctic region,” using information from Canada’s RADARSAT 2 satellite, by May 2009.243 Climate Change and Canadian Territorial Responsibilities in the Arctic Territorial responsibilities include control over resource and also responsibility for the environmental impacts in an area. Canada’s Arctic territory and waters have garnered increasing attention as areas for the exploration and shipping of resources, including oil, gas, minerals, and fish. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the Arctic contains an estimated one-quarter of the world’s undiscovered energy resources. Indeed, some have suggested that “up to 50 per cent of the earth’s remaining undiscovered reserves of hydrocarbons are located north of 60°n latitude.” However, these commentators also note that there are difficulties and expenses posed by the extraction and transportation of Arctic resources.244 Canada and the United States have disputed the maritime boundary in the Beaufort Sea, an area that potentially has strong oil and gas resources. Exploration licenses’ and competing claims to jurisdiction could be an ongoing issue. Canada has committed $51 million to map and identify the boundary of its continental shelf in the Arctic, pursuant to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Canada ratified the UNCLOS in 2003 and has 10 years from that date to determine the extent of its continental shelf. This “mapping” will help to determine Canada’s exact sovereign rights in terms of economic control (beyond the UNCLOSdefined 200-nautical-mile “exclusive economic zone”) and resource exploration. The United States has not ratified the UNCLOS, despite a vote in 2004 by the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee recommending ratification. 245 Both the Yukon and Northwest Territories are developing or have developed energy strategies to address the impacts of climate change on the energy sector. The Government of the Yukon is developing a Climate Change Action Plan to guide the implementation of the Climate Change Strategy. The Energy and Climate Change strategies are being carefully coordinated to ensure energy and climate change 243 Paragraph directly from http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/library/PRBpubs/prb0561-e.htm Paragraph directly from http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/library/PRBpubs/prb0561-e.htm 245 Paragraph directly from http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/library/PRBpubs/prb0561-e.htm 244 68 issues are addressed in a consistent and complementary manner.246 Yukon government is working in partnership with Yukon College and the Council of Yukon First Nations to establish a Climate Change Research Centre of Excellence.247 The Centre could undertake the Energy Strategy’s research and innovation priorities. Applied research for energy technology and infrastructure could be lead by the Cold Climate Innovation Cluster, which is under the umbrella of the Centre. The Climate Change Action Plan will also expand Yukon government’s energy efficiency and conservation initiatives. However, this initiative is in its infancy having started only in May 2008. Likewise, the Northwest Territories developed an energy strategy in 2003 to address the impacts of climate change. Both Territories are working to build ‘no regret’ infrastructure in the hydroelectric sector and in the oil and gas sector to take advantage of climate change when it does occur. The Strategic Forest Management Plan for the Champagne Aishihik Traditional Territory provides direction for sustainable forest management in the Champagne and Aishihik Traditional Territory (CATT).248 It is intended to provide a clear framework and practical guidelines for forest managers and planners. CAAT is working to develop knowledge and identify actions that forest managers can consider to help make forests—and the communities and people who rely on them—less likely to be negatively affected by the impacts of climate change. The information provided will help the people who will make decisions about forest management by giving them high quality information to base their decisions on. The climate change management plan has three main goals- research the kinds of effects climate change may have on the forests of the southwest Yukon; determine what problems and risks those effects could present to people, communities, and the local environment; and to identify ways to adapt to climate and other sorts of change. Innovation Canada and the Geological Survey of Canada are conducting research on climate change impacts on the thawing of permafrost in the Canadian Arctic. These research studies have direct implications for resource exploration and the opening up of mineral rich areas previously under ice-cover. Environment Canada’s Northern Ecosystem Initiative (NEI) supports projects that address science and capacity-building needs throughout the Canadian North. NEI supports partnership-based efforts to improve our understanding of how northern ecosystems respond to climate change, contaminants, and resource use activities. NEI also supports the development of indicators and a network to monitor ecosystem changes.249 NEI has an extensive collection of project that research climate change impacts and build capacity in the Arctic. For example, Project 102 Caribou and Climate Change, works to advance our understanding of the effects of 246 http://www.emr.gov.yk.ca/energy/pdf/energy_strategy_for_yukon_draft_for_public_consultation_may2008.pdf pg. 15 247 http://www.emr.gov.yk.ca/energy/pdf/energy_strategy_for_yukon_draft_for_public_consultation_may2008.pdf pg. 15 248 http://www.caforestry.ca/ 249 http://www.mb.ec.gc.ca/nature/ecosystems/nei-ien/index.en.html 69 climate change on caribou and their vulnerability to climatic changes. Project 111 Climate Change and Freshwater, which is assessing integrated effects of climate change on key northern aquatic ecosystems. Climate Change, Northern Stewardship, and Canada’s Northern Peoples The Arctic is becoming both an environment of risk and an environment at risk as the climate changes. Sea ice is now unstable where Inuit hunters previously knew it to be safe, more dramatic weather events such as floods are occurring, vegetation cover is changing and impacting,, coastal areas face the threat of erosion which will affect fishing and hunting communities, and around the Arctic people report that particular animals are no longer found in traditional hunting and fishing areas during specific seasons. Climate change impacts are also affecting formal economic activities in the region, namely tourism and various natural resource management activities.250 For a summary of impacts of climate change on Inuit peoples please see Appendix 7. The archaeological record, ice cores, ethno-historical accounts and the memories of elders provide detailed accounts of how human life in the Arctic has always been dominated and influenced by periodic, irregular and often dramatic ecosystem changes, triggered by periods of warming and cooling, extreme weather events and fluctuations in animal populations. The successful long-term occupation of the Arctic by indigenous peoples has been possible, in part, because of their profound respect and understanding of their environmental surroundings, and subsequently to their adaptive capacity (in social, economic and cultural practices) to adjust to climate variation and change.251 Arctic hunters, herders and fishers have always lived with and adapted to shifts and changes in the size, distribution, range, and availability of animal populations. They have dealt with flux and change by developing significant flexibility in resource procurement techniques and in social organization. However, the ecological and social relations between indigenous peoples and animals are not just affected by climate-induced disruption, changing habitats and migration routes, or new technology. The livelihoods of the indigenous peoples and local communities of the Arctic are subject both to the historical development and the contemporary influences of markets and to the implementation of government policy and resource management that either contributes to a redefinition of hunting, herding, and fishing, or threatens to subvert subsistence lifestyles and indigenous ideologies of human–animal relationships.252 Today, arctic peoples cannot adapt, relocate, or change resource use activities as easily as they may have been able to do in the past, because most now live in permanent communities and have to negotiate greatly circumscribed social and 250 Paragraph directly from Adaptation to Climate Change in the Arctic: http://www.uarctic.org/Adaptation_to_Climate_Change_in_the_Arctic_FINAL_web_rV6mb.pdf.file 251 Ibid. 252 Ibid. 70 economic situations. The majority of indigenous peoples live in planned settlements with elaborate infrastructures, and their resource activities are determined to a large extent by strict resource management regimes, regulatory and legal regimes, land use and land ownership regulations, quotas and local and global markets. Furthermore, if Arctic Ocean ice disappears for most of the year with the projected warming of the Arctic, we may soon experience an explosion of human industrial activities going north. In advance, this activity will have to be regulated in a way that respects local arctic societies and indigenous peoples’ natural resource use rights.253 To succeed in developing preparedness and building competencies in local Arctic societies, adaptation to climate change must therefore be priorities for national and regional governments and indigenous people’s institutions and organizations. In addition, national adaptation strategies must recognize minorities, indigenous peoples’ traditional knowledge, cultural and linguistics rights.254 Steps have been taken with innovative co-management regimes that allow for the sharing of responsibility for resource management between indigenous and other uses and the state. The Western Arctic (Inuvialuit) Claims Settlement Act (1984). The Inuvialuit Final Agreement (IFA), is designed to achieve the protection of Arctic wildlife, environment and biological productivity. The IFA created two separate management structures — the Inuvialuit Game Council (IGC) and the Inuvialuit Settlement Region (IRC) — as policy and administrative bodies for the comanagement of arctic resources.255 The devolution of authority and the introduction of co-management allow indigenous peoples opportunities to improve the degree to which management and the regulation of resource use considers and incorporates indigenous views and traditional resource use systems.256 Co-management institutions create opportunities to increase local resilience and the ability to cope with, respond to, and deal with change.257 For example, new governance mechanisms through the Inuvialuit Final Agreement of 1984 are helping Inuvialuit to negotiate and manage the impacts of climate change.258 For instance, the five comanagement bodies established by the Agreement provide an effective means for Inuvialuit communities to communicate with regional, territorial, and federal governments and, to the Arctic Council.259 253 Ibid. Ibid. 255 http://dlc.dlib.indiana.edu/archive/00002824/01/aboriginal_people_and_resource_comanagement.pdf 256 http://www.eoearth.org/article/Responding_to_climate_change_in_the_Arctic 257 http://www.eoearth.org/article/Responding_to_climate_change_in_the_Arctic 258 http://www.eoearth.org/article/Responding_to_climate_change_in_the_Arctic 254 259 http://www.eoearth.org/article/Responding_to_climate_change_in_the_Arctic 71 Appendices 72 73 Appendix 1 Summary of Drivers, Adaptation Options, Policies, and Gaps Climate Change Sector Agriculture        260 261 Climate Change Drivers260 8.5% 62,00 kt CO2 GHGs Emteric Fermentation GHGs 24,000 (kt CO2) Manure management 8,000 (kt CO2) Agricultural soils 30,000 (kt CO2) Energy y use 1,980 (kt CO2) (agriculture and forestry) anthropogenic ammonia emissions to the atmosphere are dominated by agricultural sources, mainly livestock production Climate Change Impacts         Extreme weather and drought Pests, diseases, and disasters Incentives to adapt to climate change prior to problems arising Increased productivity of some crops in some parts of Canada while declining productivity in other areas Alberta crop producers lost $413 million in 2001, and $1.33 billion in 2002 due to drought262 In Saskatchewan there are losses of $925 million in 2001, and $1.49 billion in 2002 due to drought263 If drought conditions prevail Manitoba’s output could decline by 20%, resulting in $400 million loss in revenue Farm income in Saskatchewan could fall by $160 to 273 million, leading to declines between $146 million and $248 million in provincial income Security Challenges261    Conflict over resources such arable land, water shortages A drop in agricultural productivity will lead to, or worsen, food-insecurity in least developed countries and an unsustainable increase in food prices across the board Economic damage and risk to certain crops due to drought or decreased water availability        Adaptation Options technological developments increasing tolerance of crops to variability in moisture levels new irrigation strategies better access to weather and climate forecasts better resource management programs and subsidies crop insurance, producer savings accounts, disaster relief framework Governance Structures  Federal Ministry of Agriculture and AgriFoods Canada (AAFC)            Adaptation Policies and Programs AAFC’s Agricultural Policy Framework and Growing Forward AAFC’s Accelerated Release Program Drought Watch (Federal Ministry of Agriculture and AAFC) AgroClimatic Information Service of Alberta Canada-Saskatchewan Irrigation Diversification Center Canadian Agricultural Income Stabilization Program (CAIS) Agricultural Policy Framework’s Disaster Relief Program Agricultural Policy Framework (APF) and Growing Forward “BRM Suite” The Net Income Stabilization Account (NISA) Canadian Farm Income Program (CFIP) National Land and Water Information Service provides open and free Policy Gaps      No National Drought Early Warning System No National initiative for innovative Crop Technologies and Technology Transfer programs as it relates to climate change Challenge of crop technology versus consumer aversion to GM foods Crop Insurance that does not create a “noone can lose” situation No trade and agricultural policies that have climate change mandates to take advantage of decreasing wheat and corn production elsewhere in the world Source: ec.gc.ca Canada’s 2006 Greenhouse gas inventory Adapted from http://www.consilium.europa.eu/ueDocs/cms_Data/docs/pressData/en/reports/99387.pdf 262 Dry times, pg. 252 263 Dry times, pg. 252 74 Sector Climate Change Drivers260 Climate Change Impacts           264 All crops in Manitoba may decrease by 10% Wheat, barley and canola may decrease by 7% in Alberta but may increase by 2 – 8% in Sask. If drought conditions prevail Manitoba’s output could decline by 20%, resulting in $400 million loss in revenue Corn and soyabean cultures will shift northwards in Ontario Livestock and poultry production are vulnerable to changing availability of water and increased heat stress Warmer weather decreasing feed requirements, increasing survival of young and reducing energy costs, while increased heat stress would adversely affect milk production, meat quality and dairy cow reproduction The cost of agriculture to current climate in Canada is over $1.3 billion and is likely to increase Total Climate Impact Cost = $1,887 (millions of CND)264 Total Adaptation Cost = $1,330 (millions of CND) Increasing Cost Trend Security Challenges261 Adaptation Options Governance Structures Adaptation Policies and Programs access to data, information, and tools for land use management Policy Gaps www.p2pays.org/ref/40/3991.pdf 75 Sector Fisheries Climate Change Drivers260  Domestic marine transportation 5, 800 (kt CO2)  Note: commercial fisheries account for a percentage of the above total Climate Change Impacts       Change in sustainable harvests for all fish populations in the ecosystem Change in the relative levels of exploitation that can be sustainably directed against the fish populations of the ecosystem Change in the mixture of species that can be sustainably harvested in one area It is impossible to determine increases or decreases in Canada’s commercial stock at present, however, there will be changes in fishing patterns, species available, and location of fishing grounds Might improve Canada’s competitive position if other countries suffer a drop in catch volume If the commercial price of fish rise, it may offset the loss in volume Security Challenges261  Diminishing fish stocks, livelihood decline, and border tensions    Adaptation Options Increasing monitoring capacities stakeholders to more accurately understand the spatial distribution and relative abundance of fish stocks Enhancing the adaptive capacity of fish species by reducing nonclimatic stresses and maintaining genetic diversity Improving research and communicatio n between stakeholders Governance Structures  Department of Fisheries and Oceans  Natural Resources Canada  Atlantic Council of Fisheries Ministers          Adaptation Policies and Programs Department of Fisheries and Oceans policies for the Conservation of Wild Pacific and Atlantic salmon Pacific Wild Salmon Policy and managing "Conservation Units" Fisheries Act (1868) Fish Habitat Management Program and the Policy for the Management of Fish Habitat (the Habitat Policy) in 1986 Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA) (1995) Species at Risk Act (SARA) (2004) International Agreements concerning migratory fish stocks Signatory to Convention on Biological Diversity (1992), Convention for the Conservation of Anadromous Stocks in the North Pacific Ocean (1992), Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (1978), North Atlantic Salmon Convention (1982), Pacific Salmon Treaty (1985). Department of Fisheries and Oceans’ partnership with the Marine Conservation Caucus, to work with stakeholders towards improving marine conservation Policy Gaps       Difficulty with implementation and monitoring of fish stocks Inadequate policy relevant research on impact and especially adaptation Stakeholder collaboration process is limited responses of fish, fisheries and aquatic < 5 % of fisheries / aquatic research focused on adaptation Inadequate monitoring capacities of spatial distribution and abundance 76 Sector Climate Change Drivers260 Climate Change Impacts Security Challenges261 Adaptation Options Governance Structures  Forestry     5% Land use change and forestry 31,000 (kt CO2) Pulp and paper 5,950 (kt CO2) Energy y use 1,980 (kt CO2) (agriculture and forestry)             265 Major changes in future forest growth and survival Tree species migration and ecosystem shifts Increased risk of forest fires, disease and insect outbreaks Increased damage to forests due to extreme weather events Loss of biodiversity due to increases in exotic and invasive species Changes in timber supply and rent value Loss of forest stock and non-market goods and services Changes in land values, land use options, and nonmarket values Dislocation of parks and natural areas and increased land use conflicts Canada’s forested area is projected to shrink by 14% Total Climate Impact Cost = $556 (millions of CND)265 Total Adaptation Cost = $403 (millions of CND)  Economic damage and risk to forest resources and human security due to increased forest fire risk      targeted research and learning improved data and information sharing encouraging experimentati on and adaptive management in forest management and planning investigating new kinds of institutional arrangements that are more effective at facilitating autonomous adaptation risk reduction strategies    Federal Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Canadian Council of Forest Ministers        Adaptation Policies and Programs policy and programs. Open public access to the latest scientific research and socio-economic research on fisheries through websites such as C-CIARN and Natural Resources Canada Federal Canadian Forest Service’s national mandate focuses on climate change research Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network (C-CIARN) which produces scientific research, workshops, conference reports, and posters and other communication products related to forest resources Canadian Forest Service Forest 2020 Plantation Demonstration and Assessment establishes plantations of fastgrowing tress Canadian Forest Service is developing droughttolerant varieties of trees Canada’s Model Forest Program field laboratories for testing new approaches to forest management Canada’s Model Forest Program 2003-2008 National Forest Strategy- Policy Gaps          No National strategy for climate change and forests No modification of forestry management systems to address issues of climate change due to uncertainty and the ‘waitand-see’ approach Current policy focuses on problem definition rather then action Limited level of experimentation with drought resistant forests Further research needs to be undertaken to understand the impact of climate change on growth and yield Climate change needs to be taken into account when analyzing long term supply of timber and forest management A better understanding of how climate change should be taken into consideration when making reforestation policies Firesmart technologies have only been implanted disparately Institutional and policy barriers for adaptation www.p2pays.org/ref/40/3991.pdf 77 Sector Climate Change Drivers260 Climate Change Impacts  Security Challenges261 Adaptation Options Governance Structures Increasing Cost Trend     Water  Waste water handling 930 (kt CO2)         Changes in water flow Water resources will become more abundant across much of northern Canada Summer river flows are expected to decrease due to reduced water supply from snowmelt and glacier runoff Decreases in shallow groundwater resources Flooding risk increase Drought risk increase Shoreline properties, infrastructure and shipping channels will be affected Total Climate Impact Cost     Reduced availability of fresh water could lead to resource conflict Water shortage in particular has the potential to cause civil unrest and to lead to significant economic losses Climate change could fuel conflicts over resources that is highly politicized Potential damage to infrastructure    water management and better resource management structural adaptations institutional adaptations     Natural Resources Canada Ministry of Infrastructure Canada Environment Canada Industry Canada    Adaptation Policies and Programs Sustainable Forest Management in a MultiStakeholder context Canadian Council of Forest Ministries National Forest Strategy Coalition Canadian Forest Service (CFS) Fire Research network research into climate change and forest fires Firesmart Technologies developed by Natural Resources Canada, the provinces, the forest industry, and universitiesstrategically integrates fire and forest management activities to reduce the overall flammability of forests Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program (CCIAP), is working to reduce Canada's vulnerability to climate change in the water resource sector by supporting the provision of information for adaptation decisionmaking to stakeholders “no regrets” adaptations such as watershed planning to respond to water stresses such as low water levels e.g. Ontario proposed Bill 43, the Clean Water Act, 2006 Environment Canada, Industry Canada, Health Policy Gaps     Unknown how climate change with change hydraulic cycle and therefore changing infrastructure for climate change impacts is difficult ‘No regrets’ water policy recommended Need more funding for municipalities who implement water infrastructure Comprehensive intergovernmental policies that address competition for and conservation of water resources needed 78 Sector Climate Change Drivers260 Climate Change Impacts   Energy        266 81% Total emissions 583,000 (kt CO2) Electricity and heat generation 117,000 (kt CO2) Fossil fuel industry energy consumption emissions 68,000 (kt CO2) Mining energy consumption emissions 16,500 (kt CO2) Iron and steel energy consumption emissions 6,380 (kt CO2) Non-Ferrous metals energy       Security Challenges261 Adaptation Options Governance Structures = $1,058 (millions of CND)266 Total Adaptation Cost = $767 (millions of CND) Increasing Cost Trend Changing temperatures could impact energy demand and peak load Extreme weather could impact energy infrastructure Conventional systems that depend on water availability and supply could become less reliable where regions dependent on water supplies for hydropower and/or thermal power plant cooling face reductions in water supplies Dryer summers may decrease hydroelectric generation in BC, Ontario, Quebec Competing uses of water due to drought could     Potential damage to infrastructure could be costly Intensified competition over access to, and control over, energy resources Greater energy insecurity and greater competition for resources A possible wider use of nuclear energy for power generation might raise new concerns about proliferation     Making infrastructure more secure Better management of resources necessary for energy production Making sectors more resilient to energy supply fluctuations Diversification of energy sources and conservation.    Natural Resources Canada National Energy Board Office of Energy Efficiency (NRCAN) Adaptation Policies and Programs Canada, and Natural Resources Canada, have collaborated with stakeholders through Pollution Probe to conduct workshops on water policy in Canada  The Great Lakes and Saint Lawrence River Sustainability Primer  Enviroplace which uses web-based technology to provide citizens with tools and information  International Boundary Water Treaty Act (1909)       Natural Resources Canada CANMET energy technology center (CETC) research on water reclamation Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Key Economic and Natural Environment Sectors conducts research on water supply fluctuations and risk to the energy production Wind Power Production Incentive (WPPI) Office of Efficiency and Energy EcoENERGY Program Policy Gaps      No National Strategy for energy infrastructure adaptation Strategies need to be adopted to manage the heavy water usage of hydro electricity generation and oil extraction Need for more public outreach on conservation Need to address energy resilience in the face of energy fluctuations The latest supply and demand research is still heavily focused on mitigation; more attention need on adaptation www.p2pays.org/ref/40/3991.pdf 79 Sector       All Sectors  Climate Change Drivers260 consumption emissions 3,050 (kt CO2) Chemical energy consumption emissions 6,490 (kt CO2) Cement energy consumption emissions 4,850 (kt CO2) Other manufacturing 19,600 energy consumption emissions (kt CO2) Construction energy consumption emissions 1,300 (kt CO2) Commercial and institutional energy consumption emissions 33,400 (kt CO2) Residential energy consumption emissions 40,000 (kt CO2) 721,000 (kt CO2) Climate Change Impacts Security Challenges261 Adaptation Options Governance Structures Adaptation Policies and Programs Policy Gaps impact oil sand productivity   Ministry of Natural Resources Ministry of the Environment     National Climate Change Adaptation Framework Northern Impacts and Adaptation Strategy NRCAN - National Impacts and Adaptation Assessment Reducing Canada’s Vulnerability to Climate    Integration of adaptation strategies into national policy and national leadership Moving from reactive to proactive policies Intergovernmental Cooperation in coordinating 80 Sector Climate Change Drivers260 Climate Change Impacts Security Challenges261 Adaptation Options Governance Structures Adaptation Policies and Programs Change (RCVCC) is a research program led by the Earth Sciences Sector of Natural Resources Canada  Northern Ecosystem Initiative is providing $1.0 million to improve our understanding of how northern ecosystems and the people that depend on them are affected by climate change  IAWG agreed upon a National Climate Change Adaptation Framework in 2005, which presented areas of potential interjurisdiction collaboration to increase Canada’s capacity to adapt to climate change Policy Gaps 81 Appendix 2 Mitigation Policies       Note: The Government’s “Made-in-Canada” approach to climate change mitigation (as opposed to a strict adherence to the Kyoto Protocol) is illustrated through the links below. This is largely summarized in the Turning the Corner Strategy, and the ecoACTION Program which contain all of the Federal Government’s regulatory regimes, fiscal incentives, and policy tools related to climate change Reduce Carbon dioxide (CO2); Methane (CH4); Nitrous oxide (N2O); Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs); Perfluorocarbos (PFCs); and Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) Turning the Corner, Environment Canada please see http://www.ec.gc.ca/default.asp?lang=En&n=75038EBC-1 for most recent government policy framework o To cut GHG by 150 megatons by 2020 o Industry required to submit air emissions data o Industry must cut emissions by 20% by 2020 Construction of a regulatory framework for the reduction of GHGs (2007) Please see ecoACTION for government policies on changing consumption : http://www.ec.gc.ca/ecoaction/ for fiscal incentive/tax incentive programs o ecoAGRICULTURE: subsidies to farmers to develop the production of biofuels in Canada o ecoENERGY: grants to subsidize the retrofit residential and commercial buildings, development of renewable energy sources, and the funding of cleaner and renewable energy research leading to technologies, among others o ecoTRANSPORT: subsidies for fuel efficient vehicle purchases, public transit programs, and reducing emissions from commercial vehicle fleets, among others Please see http://www.macleoddixon.com/documents/Canadas_Regulatory_Framework_for_Air_Emissions.pdf for summary of regulator regime, fiscal incentives, and policy tools 82 Appendix 3 Arctic Impacts, Adaptation, Policy and Gaps       Impacts Rising temperatures Western and Eastern regions exhibit mean annual temperature changes concentrated near +2.0 °C and precipitation increases ranging from 5 to 8% Possible cooling in the interior Retreat of glaciers Reduction in sea-ice extent and permafrost melting Alteration of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems Security Challenges Challenges to territorial sovereignty in the Northwest Passage due to melting sea ice  Threats to energy security and the simultaneous melting of permafrost and sea ice could lead to a race for resource exploration and extraction in the North  Threats to the human security of Inuit and Northern peoples, as well as issues surrounding “stewardship” as an essential facet of Canadian territorial sovereignty  Adaptation Options   Increased sovereignty patrols and northern presence territorial control, devolution of jurisdiction to territorial governments    Key Institutions Department of Indian and Northern Affairs Transport Canada Department of National Defense    Policy Canadian Northern Affairs Program Co-management of resources Western Arctic Claims Settlement Act (1984) Inuvialuit Final Agreement Inuvialuit Game Council Inuvialuit Settlement Region  Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System   White Paper on Defense (1987) Canadian Coast Guard Ice Breaker Fleet Canadian Forces Northern Area – Sovereignty Patrols NORAD Project Polar Epsilon        co-management strategies  Governments of the Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut   Natural Resources Canada  Geological Survey Canada Research on Permafrost  Environment Canada  Northern Eco-System Initiative     Gaps Need for an international agreement or settlement on the Northwest Passage and disputes over polar boarder boundaries Impact assessments have led to fruitful discussions on possible strategies and options for adaptation. However, these strategies have yet to take concrete form in specific climate change adaptation policies Government’s action towards climate change is focused mostly on territorial issues and not on adaptation to resource changes Energy and Climate Strategies (Yukon and NWT) Strategic Forest Management Plan (CATT) 83 84 Appendix 4 Discussion Questions Ecosystems 1. How should the notion of security be defined in the context of resource security challenges due to climate change? i.e. how do different interpretations of security have implications for policy direction? 2. What types of policies could encourage industry to take a leading role in developing adaptive technologies (e.g. crops, fast growing tree varieties, irrigation technology)? What are the challenges using GMO technology as a climate change solution? What is the role of government in developing adaptive technologies? 3. Many current government policies are focused on mitigating the impacts of climate change (i.e. GHG emission reductions) or reacting to them after they happen (i.e. crop insurance). What proactive strategies or policies should government be making? 4. What are the potential ‘no-regrets’ policies that can be developed today, that would benefit society now, and under conditions of a changing climate? 5. Current Canadian government policies have taken some steps to identify climate change impacts through research. What steps can be taken to move from a research based agenda towards one of concrete steps and actions? 6. What type of policies can be implemented for technological developments prior to climate change? 7. How can we reconcile strategy and policy development at the national level given the constitutional division of powers? i.e. what kind of intergovernmental policies or compromises can be made to move towards a national climate change strategy? 8. Interviews with stakeholders often conclude that industry is unwilling to make major investments towards climate change adaptation due to the level of uncertainty in climate change predictions. What type of research or information sharing is necessary to get beyond this impasse? 85 9. What type of incentives are necessary for producers to take advantage of market opportunities arising from climate change? (e.g. biofuels, soybeans, longer growing season, cod migrations, permafrost melting). 10. Municipalities are responsible for much of the infrastructure that is expected to be impacted by climate change (e.g. power transmission lines, sewage and water treatment). However, municipal government often lack the funding and capacity to develop infrastructure resilience. What type of policies or incentives are imperative to addressing this problem? 11. Given the multiple demands made on scarce water resources, and the likely impacts of climate change, what type of policies can be developed to ensure the availability, affordability, and quality of water? 12. What type of actions need be taken make climate change adaptation a policy priority? 13. What kind of national information systems are need (e.g. droughts, forest fire warning systems) to give stakeholders the information they need at the right time? 14. How can the government integrate education/outreach on climate change into existing conservation policies so that the public can do their part to make policy more effective? 15. How can current co-management strategies in Canada’s North include climate change considerations, and what lesson are there for adapting to climate change in other parts of Canada? 16. How can current co-management strategies in Canada’s North include climate change considerations, and what lesson are there for adapting to climate change in other parts of Canada? 17. How can economic models be devised that give timely information to industry on economic indicators resulting from climate change? E.g. price fluctuations, comparative advantages etc. 18. What type of information systems and policies need to be developed to give producers the opportunity to gain high market share in fast growing industries as the climate changes? E.g. soyabeans, flax. 19. How can specific production increases in Canada in relation to production decreases for the same resources in other parts of the world be translated into a competitive advantage for Canadian producers? 86 20. How can the government provide incentives for market innovations and manufacturing of climate friendly commodities? Energy 1. How should the notion of security be defined in the context of resource security challenges due to climate change? i.e. how do different interpretations of security have implications for policy direction? 2. Many current government policies are focused on mitigating the impacts of climate change (i.e. GHG emission reductions) or reacting to them after they happen (i.e. crop insurance). What proactive strategies or policies should government be making? 3. What are the potential ‘no-regrets’ policies that can be developed today, that would benefit society now, and under conditions of a changing climate? 4. Current Canadian government policies have taken some steps to identify climate change impacts through research. What steps can be taken to move from a research based agenda towards one of concrete steps and actions? 5. What type of policies can be implemented for technological developments prior to climate change? 6. Interviews with stakeholders often conclude that industry is unwilling to make major investments towards climate change adaptation due to the level of uncertainty in climate change predictions. What type of research or information sharing is necessary to get beyond this impasse? 7. Municipalities are responsible for much of the infrastructure that is expected to be impacted by climate change (e.g. power transmission lines, sewage and water treatment). However, municipal government often lack the funding and capacity to develop infrastructure resilience. What type of policies or incentives are imperative to addressing this problem? 8. What type of actions need be taken make climate change adaptation a policy priority? 9. How can the government integrate education/outreach on climate change into existing conservation policies so that the public can do their part to make policy more effective? 87 10. How can we strike a balance between non-renewable energy generation, which uses scare resources such as water (i.e. the tar sands), and the use of scarce resources for longer term sustainable developments and industries? 11. How can economic models be devised that give timely information to industry on economic indicators resulting from climate change? E.g. price fluctuations, comparative advantages etc. Arctic 1. Many current government policies are focused on mitigating the impacts of climate change (i.e. GHG emission reductions) or reacting to them after they happen (i.e. crop insurance). What proactive strategies or policies should government be making? 2. What are the potential ‘no-regrets’ policies that can be developed today, that would benefit society now, and under conditions of a changing climate? 3. Current Canadian government policies have taken some steps to identify climate change impacts through research. What steps can be taken to move from a research based agenda towards one of concrete steps and actions? 4. Interviews with stakeholders often conclude that industry is unwilling to make major investments towards climate change adaptation due to the level of uncertainty in climate change predictions. What type of research or information sharing is necessary to get beyond this impasse? 5. How can current co-management strategies in Canada’s North include climate change considerations, and what lesson are there for adapting to climate change in other parts of Canada? 6. How can the economic benefits of control of the Northwest Passage be balanced with the potential costs of the environmental impacts of increased shipping and tension with other nations making rival claims? 7. How can legislation in resource management be modernized to give the various levels of government the resources they need to adapt to climate change? E.g. where there are overlapping areas of jurisdiction such as agriculture, artic sovereignty issues. 8. The melting of permafrost is opening access to previously inaccessible resources in Canada’s North. What policies can be developed for sustainable exploration of the North? 88 89 Appendix 5 A Snapshot of Energy Resources- Canada Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/pdf_library/country_profiles/ene_cou_124.pdf 90 Appendix 6 Costing Climate Change “There is some evidence and much speculation on ways that climate change may affect climate sensitive sectors of an economy.” The Canadian economy is highly dependent on the health and sustainability of our natural resource industries, such as forestry, fisheries and agriculture, and the reliability of our critical infrastructure, including transportation and health care systems. The availability and quality of our water resources and the sustainability of the coastal zone are also important to Canada’s economic well-being. As illustrated throughout this report, climate change will present new opportunities and challenges for each of these sectors. This will lead to a range of economic impacts, both negative and positive, and new investments in adaptation will be required. At present, it is difficult to derive quantitative estimates of the potential costs of climate change impacts. Limitations are imposed by the lack of agreement on preferred approaches and assumptions, limited data availability, and a variety of uncertainties relating to such things as future changes in climate, social and economic conditions, and the responses that will be made to address those changes. Ongoing research is motivated by the fact that a meaningful assessment of climate change costs, both market and nonmarket, will strongly influence both mitigation and adaptation decisions. Indeed, the concepts and methods of economics have been recognized as a principal means of translating scientific research on climate change into policies. Economic Impact Assessments There have been several attempts to estimate the potential costs of climate change on various economic sectors at the national level in both the United States and Canada. Since these studies employ different approaches, make different assumptions and operate on varying scales, direct comparisons between countries or sectors is not possible. These numbers do, however, illustrate the magnitude and ranges of study results (see table below). In general, assessing the economic impacts of climate change involves estimating the value of direct and indirect market and nonmarket impacts, the costs of implementing adaptation options and the benefits gained as a result of the adaptation. In this case, direct impacts refer to those that occur in the region itself, whereas indirect impacts are those that result from the impacts of climate change on systems and sectors in other regions. Market goods and services have wellestablished ownership and are sold for payment, whereas nonmarket goods and 91 services are not traded and are not subject to well-defined property rights. Some examples of impacts on market goods include changes in food, forestry and fisheries products, the water supply and insurance costs. Impacts on nonmarket entities include changes in ecosystems, loss of human life, impacts on cultures and changes in political stability. It should also be noted that impacts on nonmarket services often have consequences for market goods and services. Considerable research has focused on determining values of market and nonmarket goods. Valuation is often based upon measures of the consumers’ willingness to either pay for a positive change or to accept a negative change. Although it is generally easier to estimate the impacts on market goods than on nonmarket entities, both present challenges. For example, the value of nonmarket goods and services is influenced by personal preferences, which tend to change over time in an unpredictable manner. The value of market goods depends on changes in supply and demand, which are influenced by many different factors operating at local, regional, national and international levels. It has also been suggested that the likelihood of undertaking adaptation will depend on whether the impacts are on market or nonmarket goods and services. Since people (as individuals or through companies, households or institutions) have property rights in market goods, climate change would affect the value of their assets. This provides motivation to undertake adaptations that would help to reduce losses and increase the opportunity to capitalize on potential opportunities. It is in the interest of households and firms to adapt, as they will see the benefits of the adaptation directly. In contrast, there is a lack of market incentives and mechanisms to adapt to the impacts of climate change on nonmarket goods, as well as more uncertainty concerning who should be responsible for undertaking the adaptation. These factors must be considered when accounting for the role of adaptation in economic impact studies. The possible costs of climate change have been estimated in many different ways, and studies vary greatly in their complexity and the amount of detail considered. One approach is to examine 92 historical events or trends that are thought to be indicative of future conditions. For example, some researchers have focused on the economic costs of natural disasters, using insurance claims and disaster databases to determine the costs of these events. Others have examined the economic impacts of past anomalous climate conditions, such as warmer than average winters or extremely hot summers. To address sea level rise, studies have taken projections of sea level rise (e.g., 0.5 metres by 2100) and calculated the property value that would be lost as a result of inundation, flooding and/or erosion. Limitations with these types of studies include their focus on only one aspect of a changing climate, and generally insufficient inclusion of both the costs and benefits of adaptation. A more comprehensive approach involves applying a series of models, through integrated assessment, to generate estimates of economic costs. Integrated assessment involves combining “… results and models from the biological, economic and social sciences, and the interactions between these components, in a consistent framework.” This heavy reliance on models and assumptions does, however, result in cascading uncertainties. Although it is clearly recognized that the costs of climate change are not only economic, it is extremely difficult to assign values to nonmarket services, such as ecosystem functions and cultural uses. For example, the benefits of a wetland, including water filtration, flood control and wildlife habitat, are difficult to quantify. Therefore, most costing studies do not adequately account for nonmarket services. Adapted from: http://www.p2pays.org/ref/40/39931.pdf 93 94 Appendix 7 Climate Change Impacts on Northern Peoples 95 96 Source: NRCan 2007, Climate Change in Canada’s North, http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/pdf/ch3_e.pdf 97